We start this post with the much anticipated FOMC minutes from earlier this week. Factors such as trade tensions, global growth, and corporate earnings have the FED pressing pause on rate hikes. However, the slowing or stopping of rate hikes may be too late, and overall financial conditions are causing a drag in US GDP. A chart on tariffs by country shows how U.S. tariffs are now at Emerging Market levels. The Purchasing Managers' Index is an excellent indicator of current business conditions – have you checked it lately? Lastly, the world monetary base is contracting. What does this mean for 2019?
1. Here are the days in the S&P 500 categorized as moving at least 1% up or down. There were a lot compared to 2017!
Source: BEA, as of 1/8/19
2. Some real hope and reason from the FED! Now they are looking at slowing or even stopping the rate hikes due to tame inflation, the trade war and worsening and global economic data. The only question now is, Is it too late?
Source: FOMC, as of 1/10/19
3. The 2017 economic tailwind had turned into a headwind...
Source: Oxford Economics, as of 1/8/19
4. Higher mortgage rates, even with the recent moderation, have had a profound effect on housing prices...
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting, as of 1/10/19
5. A great update on current tariff levels.
Source: Deutsche Bank Research, as of 1/11/19
6. According to Investopedia: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an indicator of economic health for manufacturing and service sectors. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current business conditions to company decision makers, analysts and purchasing managers.
Source: Haver, IIF, as of 1/11/19
7. An ominous chart...
Source: Gavekal Data, as of 1/8/19
The media may be hyping up volatility, but we prefer to look at the bigger (and more scholarly) picture when it comes to identifying and reacting to a Bear Market. Remember: most Bears take time and losses are not evenly distributed like often expect! Bear Markets unfold in specific stages - take a look at our infographic on the Anatomy of a Bear to find out what they are.
Curious for more? Find out in our latest infographic "Anatomy of a Bear".
Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.