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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 1.25.19

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jan25, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Keeping up with the ever-changing retail landscape, Redbook same-store sales index remains strong with a sample of large American retailers, suggesting that retail sales are holding up. We question, however, where is all the negative yield debt? We’ve been saying consistently it is time to talk about the R-word. Seemingly, it is on the minds of others too. On a manufacturing note, Japan's manufacturing activity has decelerated. Taiwan is reflective of Japan's situation and we share more economic indicator updates in Australia.

 

1. The U.S. consumers' relative health is showing up in strong, sustained spending. 

 

 1.25 chart 1

Source: Investing.com, as of 1/24/19

 

 

2. ~1/3 of all DM government debt outstanding has a negative yield. It is not a rational action to pay someone to hold your cash over any extended period of time...

 

1.25 chart 8

Source: Bloomberg, as of 1/24/19

 

 

3. While we do not believe a recession is a foregone conclusion, it is on the minds of more and more management teams...

 

 1.25 chart 7

Source: Sentieo;, as of 1/24/19

 

 

 

4. 9 of the top 20 busiest ports are in China, only one is in the U.S.

 

 1.25 chart 9

Source: VisualCap, as of 1/24/19

 

 

5. Like China, Japan's manufacturing index is now at the DMZ (50), the line between growth and recession.

 

1.25 chart 2-1

Source: Topdown Economics, as of 1/23/19

 

 

6. Three other Japanese indicators are also showing economic contraction...

 

 1.25 chart 3

Source: IHS Markit, as of 1/24/19

 

 

7. Here's Taiwan.

 

 1.25 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/23/19 

 

  

8. And Australia... 

 

 1.25 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/18/19

 

 

9. A bright spot.

 

1.25 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; as of 1/23/19

  

 

 

Did you catch our content in the blog introduction up top? As we like to say, we cannot promise or predict when the next recession will hit. But just as markets come up, they will come down and for that reason plus more it is important to start talking the R-Word: A Recession

 

It's Time to Talk About the R-Word

 

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.