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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 1.28.19

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jan28, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Happy Monday! With major tech earnings, a new jobs report, and a Fed meeting on the horizon, it's safe to say the U.S. markets will continue to be tested this week. After 35 days, the government shutdown appears to be over (for now). How will those 35 days effect the economy and job market? The Asian markets have had a good start to 2019, but the long-term effects of the trade war are still showing up in the data. Lastly, see the breakdown of how continued USD strength is harming emerging markets. 

 

1. Don't be surprised if the Government shutdown shows up in the jobs data. 

 

1.28 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19

 

 

2. Once the numbers are ready, will two bad months presented at once have a more acerbic effect?

 

1.28 chart 2.2

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19

 

 

3. This is good news for the trade imbalance with China!

 

 1.28 chart 4.2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19

 

 

 

4. Will the Financial Sector finally break the lower low and lower high pattern?

 

 1.28 chart 9

Source: thechartstore.com, as of 1/27/19

 

 

5. We wonder if the ~$1.5 trillion of student loan debt has something to do with this...

 

1.28 chart 3.2

 

Source: Danske Bank, as of 1/28/19

 

 

6. This is why a strong USD hurts Emerging economies so...a large part of their debt is in USD which means if the USD strengthens 10%, it is 10% more expensive to pay off...

 

 1.28 chart 5-1

Source: Bank for International Settlements, WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19

 

 

7. A different kind of relative strength...

1.28 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19 

 

  

8. Proud to be a leader in this trend! (ETP=Exchange Traded Products)

 

1.28 chart 7

Source: Bloomberg, WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/28/19

 

 

9. We've come a long way in the last 20 years! 

1.28 chart 8

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; as of 1/28/19

  

 

 

New year… same market behavior? Volatility is back with a vengeance! Recently, the market was rising and falling 2, 3, and 4% at a time. Read the BCM 4Q 18 Market Commentary for a debriefing on the last quarter, plus volatility insights and earnings we are tracking so far in 2019.

 

View Now: BCM 4Q 2018 Market Commentary 

 

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.