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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 1.7.19

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Jan07, 2019 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

 

Happy First Monday of 2019! In today's chart blog, we take a look at how the S&P 500 broke out of its six year channel to the downside. A chart on sector trends highlights the not-so-surprising news that nearly all stocks in the Energy sector are in Bear market territory. Leading economic indicators like the ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) index continue to point to an economic slowdown in the months to come. Demographics will continue to be a drag on labor force participation as the population ages, despite some baby boomers reentering the job market. Lastly, how bad was 2018 for the international markets?

 

1. The S&P 500 did break out of its six year channel to the downside. A false breakout?

 

1.7 chart 1

Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 1/7/19

 

 

2. The difference in volatility between 2017 and 2018 is striking...

 

1.7 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/4/19

 

 

3. Will any future slowdown turn into a recession?

 

 1.7 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/7/19

  

 

4. How many stocks are in a bear market by sector?

 

1.7 chart 9

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as of 1/3/19

 

  

5. So far, QE reversal has resulted in the FED selling ~$1/2 trillion of bonds back to the market

 

1.7 chart 2

Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 1/7/19

 

 

6. Plentiful job openings with modest improvement to comp levels has been enticing many baby-boomers to come out of retirement...

 

1.7 chart 3

Source: FRED, as of 1/7/19

 

 

7. However, the retirement trend, due to demographics, may be tough to overcome...

 

1.7 chart 4

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, as of 1/7/19

 

  

8. This shows how unkind 2018 was to international markets. 

 

1.7 chart 8

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as of 1/3/19

 

 

In last Friday's blog, we asked you: Is the worst of the global slowdown over?

 

For more insights into a year-end wrap up, including how global equity markets performed and where they are now, read our latest blog post. 

 

Fireside Charts: Click Here for the Most Recent Post

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.