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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 1.9.19

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Jan09, 2019 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

Our first chart today highlights how analysts have downgraded their earnings growth forecasts for 2019, which eases the worry of earnings disappointments in the future. A rising share of total outstanding US debt is Treasury securities. Were you aware that Emerging Markets were more stable than the S&P 500 for December? An infographic on the debt-to-GDP ratio points to the most indebted countries in the world. The U.S. isn't too far away from Greece in this context!

 

1. More reasonable earnings expectations helps to lesson the worry of earnings disappointments going forward.

 

 1.9 chart 3-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/8/19

 

 

2. Global earnings estimates have also been revised to more reasonable levels.

 

1.9 chart 5

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, as of 1/8/19

 

 

3. This is what happens when the Government's deficits are ~$1 trillion every year...

 

1.9 chart 4

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, as of 1/8/19

 

 

4. A great chart showing the importance of housing in our economy.

 

1.9 chart 1

Source: BEA, as of 1/8/19

 

 

5. Is EM ready to charge?

 

1.9 chart 2

Source: Credit Suisse, as of 1/8/19

 

 

6. Unfortunately, the news from Europe continues to disappoint...

 

1.9 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 1/9/19

 

  

7. A society needs about 2.3 live birth rate to sustain population. The post WWII generational dearth of births is severely hampering Japan, Europe and even China.

 

1.9 chart 7

Source: Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, as of 1/9/19

 

  

8. Worth a minute or two for insights on the Debt to GDP ratio for our world's nations.

 

1.9 chart 9-1

Source: Howmuch.net, as of 1/9/19

 

 

 

In the chart below, our Investment Committee points you to where the markets are right now vs. the last two Bears of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. Can you see the similarities? If you could go back in time, what would you do differently?

 

 

Chart 5 - Price Dividend Bear Markets 1-4-1

 

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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.