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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 10.1.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Oct01, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

As of late Sunday night, the United States, Canada, and Mexico reached a new NAFTA deal. However, this does not mean the trade war is over, and we as U.S. consumers are just beginning to feel the repercussions of trade tensions with the 800 pound gorilla... China. Remember: China has imposed tariffs on 80% of U.S. merchandise exports. About 75% of third-quarter earnings guidance has been negative; overwhelmingly so for technology and consumer discretionary.  What will happen when the tax package stimulus fades completely?

 

1. A long-term look at the USD.


10.1 chart 2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 9/25/18

 

 

2. Lots of noise...the market is mid channel in the longest bull run in history. 

 

10.1 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

3. Double top or a breakout?  

 

10.1 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/25/18

 

 

4. While today's news on NAFTA/Canada is most welcome, it is not the 880 pound gorilla...

 

10.1 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/1/18

 

 

5. China has many other weapons to employ including a currency devaluation.

 

10.1 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

6. The trade war has already pushed China's Purchasing Manager's Index to zero growth...

 

10.1 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/25/18

 

 

7. An update to the trade war's effects on U.S. farmers...

 

10.1 chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

8. The U.S. is not an island...the trade war is having an effect on U.S. companies and the tax package stimulus is waning...

 

10.1 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/20/18

 

 

This past Friday, the S&P made the largest overhaul in history to the sectors of the S&P 500® Index. These changes will have an impact on the overall market and will also impact how Beaumont Capital Management (BCM) strategies will track the overall market. Were you aware of the important GICS® sector changes?

 

Why the Upcoming GICS Sector Shakeup Matters

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.