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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 10.3.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Oct03, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

The Agriculture Economy Barometer declined further in September as U.S. farmers continue to suffer from the effects of retaliatory tariffs. Major automakers reported negative sales last month compared to September 2017. What will happen if tariffs rise to 25% in 2019?  Italy’s debt is 132% of their GDP. In honor of Tencent’s U.S. IPO announcement, we share streaming music revenues since 2016.

 

1. Is another devaluation in the works?  If the Trump Administration enacts tariffs on all Chinese imports, this is a potent response. Either way, a stronger USD will widen our trade deficit with China!


10.2 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 101/18

 

 

2. We have been blogging about this for weeks...

 

10.3 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

3. If the renegotiated NAFTA trade agreement, now being called the USMCA, is such a "success", then why keep the steel & aluminum tariffs on your two neighbors? (and thus the retaliatory tariffs on our farmers)...

 

10.3 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

4. And here are the effects of the trade war on the auto industry.

 

10.3 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

5. This can help drive inflation higher...energy permeates our lives...we can't drive, heat/cool our homes/offices, make or transport goods or much of anything without energy.

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/1/18

 

 

6. In addition to their budget deficit, this is the issue with Italy. They will likely need to restructure their debt...

 

10.3 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

7. Some great info on Emerging Markets. For an expanded view of this chart, click here

 

Emerging Market traffic light

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

8. This makes sense...rates are much lower outside the U.S. 

 

10.3 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/2/18

 

 

9. Part of our concern about the FED making an aggregate policy mistake by raising too far, too fast.

 

10.3 chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

10. Smart move or whip-saw set-up?

 

10.3 chart 11

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

11. To wit...

 

10.3 chart 12

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

12. Over 80% of IPOs don't make a profit?! Wall Street at its worst? Will we ever learn?

 

10.3 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/2/18

 

 

13. Tencent announced its U.S. IPO today...

 

10.3 chart 13

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 10/3/18

 

 

This past Sunday, the United States and Canada reached a new NAFTA deal: The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Free trade advocates lauded increased access to Canada’s protected dairy market but, on the flip side, protectionism within the North American auto industry increased. However, this does not mean the trade war is over just yet… do not let this progress cover up what is happening in China. 

 

For more information on the current status of U.S. trade relations, keep up with our previous chart blog post. 

 

 Fireside Charts: Click Here for the Most Recent Post

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.