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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 12.12.18

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Dec12, 2018 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Today's Fireside Chart's includes updates on Germany's GDP and bond yields; the U.S. yield curve, the inversion and the increasing statistical probability of a recession; a snapshot of recent market action and major indices breaking intermediate- and longer-term trend lines; and finally, a disappointing reality check on the tax collected from tariffs. 

 

1.  While still positive, the trend is disappointing...

 

12.12 chart 2

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/11/18

 

 

2. German Bond yields are negative through 7 years...

 

 12.12 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/12/18

 

 

3. An update on the yield curve and the inversion...

 

12.12 chart 4-1

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/12/18

 

 

4. The most recent market action has broken many trend lines. 

 

12.12 chart 3-1

Source: State Street, as of 12/12/18

 

 

5. While tariffs can have an acute effect on a company or industry, in reality the actual tax collected is a drop in the bucket compared to a ~$1 trillion U.S. budget deficit!

 

12.12 chart 5 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/12/18

 

 

6. Polar Ice melting is raising sea levels...

 

 12.12 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/11/18

 

 

7. This is not helping!

 

 12.12 chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/11/18

 

 

We all can identify the bear markets of years past: the dot com bubble, the housing bubble... what's next? But, have you looked closely at how a typical bear unfolds and when the most money is lost? For a historic look of bear markets past, and how you can prepare for whenever the next one rears its head, read “Anatomy of a Bear Market” on ETF Trends by BCM Portfolio Manager Dave Haviland.

 

Anatomy of a Bear Market

  

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.