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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 12.19.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Dec19, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

The S&P 500 was sent to a 14-month low this week as we continue to see more dire changes in the data. What are you doing to prepare? Copper fell alongside stocks and other assets. Corporations will be refinancing at newly heightened interest rates, which poses a significant threat to those who took advantage the previously low interest rate environment. Homebuilder pessimism stands out in the Northeast, and some are attributing these fears to the new tax laws. 

 

1. The S&P 500 took out its February lows. Please read our paper on "The Anatomy of a Bear Market" to help you decide on a proper course of action...

 

12.19 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/17/18

 

 

2. There are 7 days left for a Christmas rally...

 

12.19 chart 2

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/18/18

 

 

3. This is a big miss which breaks the 2.5 year upward trendline. 

 

 12.19 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/17/18

 

 

4. Dr. Copper has historically been a fair predictor of pending global economic activity. What is Dr. Copper telling us? 

 

12.19 chart 7

Source: Barchart.com, as of 12/19/18

 

 

5. Oil prices are highly correlated with inflation. With oil's price collapse, inflation expectations have also collapsed.

 

12.19 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/18/18

 

 

6. U.S. corporations have issued record amounts of debt, taking advantage of the low interest rates. With rates now rising, how will the refinancing effect earnings?

 

12.19 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/19/18

 

 

7. Are the recent tax law changes, namely the limitations on deductible mortgage interest and property taxes, having an unintended consequence?  

 

12.19 chart 5-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/18/18

  

 

8. Two months is not a trend but the inference in the trade war is ominous...

 

12.19 chart 9-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/19/18

 

 

9. While EM currency has been stabilizing, it is at the bottom of its channel...

 

 12.19 chart 3

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/17/18

 

 

 

 

Have you checked on how the markets have been this week, this morning, or just now? Remember that financial news will dramatize DJIA and S&P swings for ratings. Learn from our Portfolio Management team how you can make sound investing decisions in the coming new year. Read "3 Best ETF Ideas For Investors Include Dividend, China FANG Plays" from Investor's Business Daily

 

3 Best ETF Ideas for the New Year

 

  

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.