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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 12.21.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Dec21, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

Economic forecasts for Q4 GDP growth are still healthy, with many predictions ranging between 2.5% and 2.9% (annualized). From the Philly Fed regional manufacturing index, we can see that factory activity continues to moderate. Although Emerging Market indices have had quite the ride, they are still holding up better than the S&P. Finally, we wrap up this blog post with some insight on Japan's inverted yield curve and trade deficit.

 

Fireside Charts will not be published the week of 12/24 due to the holidays. We wish you a Happy Holiday and joyous New Year!

 

1. Is the FED only looking at the soft economic data?

 

 12.21 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/19/18

 

 

2. Bear markets take time to unfold...in true bear markets most risk assets correlate towards 1...

 

12.21 chart 2

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/19/18

 

 

3. More negative news out of Philly...

 

 12.21 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/19/18

 

  

 

4. Wage growth has mostly recovered to pre-Great Recession levels but is certainly under control.  What is the FED worried about? Perhaps it is just "normalization"...

 

12.21 chart 3-1

Source: The Conference Board, as of 12/20/18

 

 

5. FedEx's Earnings report supports the red line...

 

 12.21 chart 7

Source: RENMAC, as of 12/20/18

 

 

6. While EM stocks & currencies took a big hit earlier than the U.S., since October they have been holding up better than U.S. equities.

 

 12.21 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/18/18

 

  

7. Now Japan's yield curve has a slight inversion...with negative rates.  

 

12.21 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 12/20/18

 

 

8. Japan's trade deficit continues to worsen as their exports slow.

 

12.21 chart 1

Source: Investing.com, as of 12/17/18

 

 

What funds are you looking at as we head into 2019? Learn from our Portfolio Management team how you can make sound investing decisions in the coming new year. Read "3 Best ETF Ideas For Investors Include Dividend, China FANG Plays" from Investor's Business Daily

 

3 Best ETF Ideas for the New Year

 

  

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.