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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 2.15.19

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Feb15, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

On this day in 1985, the S&P 500 closed at $181.60 and the price of a movie ticket cost only $2.75. A movie ticket today costs about $14.19! Speaking of inflation... follow oil prices and you can easily predict where inflation stands as well! As of February 11th, U.S. total public debt climbed to more than $22 trillion. How much more can we handle with mounting fiscal obligations, continued pressure to fund a wall on the southern border and an expanding budget deficit? An interesting perspective on the correlation between earnings recessions and economic recessions. We wrap up this post with positive GDP news out of Japan and Germany... even if Germany's Q4 growth was zero.



1. U.S. CPI had a significant decline and now stands at ~1.8% (below the FED's target of 2%). Follow oil prices and you can predict most inflation changes...


2.15 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 2/14/19



2. Sigh....


2.15 chart 3

Source: U.S. Treasury, as of 2/14/19



3. How does spending surge when the Government is shut down for most of the month?! 


2.15 chart 2

 Source: Bloomberg; as of 2/14/19



4. Between the polar vortex and the government shutdown this is likely to be transient...


 2.15 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 2/15/19



5.  Good to know...


2.15 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 2/14/19



6. Another dodged bullet?


 2.15 chart 7 redo

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 2/15/19



7. Has all the cash raised during last year's volatility driven the markets in 2019? FOMO is a strong emotion...


2.15 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 2/15/19




Although we did not include any S&P drawdown reports in today's chart blog, it doesn't mean it is not always on the top of our minds! In our latest piece featured in ETF Trends, The Probability of Another 20%+ Drawdown is Higher Than You Might Expect, we are not saying the sky is falling but what we can assume from historic economic analysis, another large drawdown is not out of the question. 


Can your portfolios handle a large drawdown in the near future? Do they mitigate large losses while keeping growth at the forefront? This piece just explains how you can't take short-term market performance for granted and you should build portfolios ready to handle anything. Read the piece below to learn more. 


The Probability of Another 20%+ Drawdown is Higher Than You Might Expect




Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.