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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Number of U.S. Equities Cut in Half, $9 Trillion of Global Negative Yield, and more on China's Slowdown

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Mar15, 2019 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

 

The number if U.S. listed stocks has been cut approximately in half since the mid 1990's. Negative-yielding global debt is back above $9 trillion. Recession indicators remain higher than last year, but are still below the key thresholds. As shared in yesterday's blog post, Buying the Dips: When Does this Approach Run the Most Risk?, China is in contraction mode and actual GDP figures may be worse than the released figures. We end this post with a non-investment chart on threatened species around the world. Finally, we wish you a safe and happy St. Patrick's Day weekend from Boston! 

 

1. Since 1995, the number of listed U.S. equities has been cut in half...

 

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/12/19

 

 

2. Interesting and ominous...

 

 3.15 chart 7

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 3/15/19

 

 

3. ...even more so...this is for 6 months!

 

 3.15 chart 8

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 3/15/19

 

 

4. How long do recessions last? 

 

 3.15 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/12/19

 

 

5. Money flows and performance seem out of sync.

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, Arbor Research; as of 3/14/19

  

 

6. $9 trillion of "here is my money and I'm going to pay you to hold it and use it". Outside of a short term crisis, negative yields are not a rational investment!

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, as of 3/13/19

 

 

7. Will just the lack of tightening by the ECB be enough to allow Europe to work their way out of economic malaise?

 

3.15 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/14/19

 

  

8. China's slowdown continues...

  

3.15 chart 2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/14/19

 

 

9. ...and the numbers may be worse than the officially released figures...

 

 

 

Source: "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts", as of 3/14/19

 

   

10. This does not relate to investing, but important to be aware of. More than 13,000 animals are listed as threatened species.

  

 3.15 chart 10-1

Source: Statista, as of 3/15/19

 

Are we nearing the end of the economic cycle? According to global outlook data, the U.S. is following several other global leaders into the late stage of the business cycle. Should this make us change our investment behavior? Is “buying the dips” the correct approach? Read more on “Buying the Dips: When Does this Approach Run the Most Risk?”.

 

Should You Buy the Dip? 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.