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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Consumer Confidence Falters, Exports Ramp Up, A Look at Central Banks Balance Sheets

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Mar27, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

U.S. consumer confidence has missed estimates for March after a quick rebound in February. A sharp drop in confidence like this could indicate a similarly sharp drop in spending in the upcoming weeks and months. An unusually high number of S&P companies have issued negative revenue pre-announcements for Q1. How does our yield curve compare against our North American neighbors? If you thought ours was bad…just wait. Gas exports are taking off and the U.S. is producing large amounts of both oil and gas. Finally, we share an aggregate of central banks' around the world balance sheets.

 

1. Is the U.S. consumer hunkering down for leaner times ahead?

 

3.27 chart 14

Source: The Sevens Report, as of 3/27/19

 

 

2. If a picture is worth a thousand words...

 

 3.27 chart 2-1

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 3/25/19

 

 

3. It's early yet the 1Q19 earnings expectations continue to be talked down...

 

3.27 chart 6

Source: FactSet, as of 3/26/19

 

 

4. If you think our yield curve is inverted, check out our neighbors':

 

3.27 chart 3 part 2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/26/19

 

 

5. Is no disappointment good news?

 

 

 

Source: Richmond Fed, as of 3/26/19

 

 

6. Unlike the Philly FED report, Dallas was lower...

 

  

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/25/19

 

 

7. How much damage can the tariffs inflict?

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, as of 3/27/19

 

 

8. ...A lot!

 

 3.27 chart 10

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 3/27/19

 

 

 

9. Did they learn nothing from 2007-09?

 

 3.27 chart 7

Source: Federal Housing Administration, as of 3/26/19

 

 

10. A little hard to read but worth it...

 

3.27 chart 13

Source: Citigroup, as of 3/27/19

 

 

11. The U.S. producing and exporting record amounts of oil AND gas...

 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of 3/27/19

 

  

12. Some great historical perspective on the U.S. oil industry and the effects of shale oil.

 

 3.27 chart 4

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of 3/26/19

 

  

13. What country has the largest oil reserves?

 

3.27 chart 5-1

Source: HowMuch.net, as of 3/26/19

  

  

14. In a little over a decade, the world's Central Banks increased their balance sheets by ~5 times to over $22 trillion. The number is so big, we can't fully comprehend it.

 

 

Source: Federal Reserve, as of 3/27/19

 

 

Exciting news: Beaumont Capital Management (BCM) is in search of a Director of Sales and a National Accounts Manager! If you are looking to contribute to a growing asset management firm and have a direct impact on helping advisors improve their clients’ financial well-being, explore our open opportunities.

 

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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.