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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Growth Stocks Haven't Been this Expensive since Dot-Com Bubble, Jobless Claims hit 50-Year Low, How Americans Spend their Money

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Apr15, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Wishing you a happy and safe Patriot’s Day from Boston! The MSCI World Value Index is showing global value stocks are near cheapest versus growth stocks in 19 years. U.S. retail gasoline prices have been rising for 57 days as of last Friday. How will this affect the SUV trend? On a more positive note, the fewest people in nearly 50 years sought unemployment benefits last week, making jobless claims hit a half-century low. The latest news on Brexit shows if the electorate has changed its mind, and less bad news is good news for Europe's industrial production. Finally, how do Americans spend their income?

  

1. Just who is moving the stock markets?

 

Source: State Street Global Advisors, as of 4/15/19

 

  

2. Markets love to extend their runs...

 

 Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/15/19

 

 

3. Great news! Where does it go from here?

 4.15 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/12/19

 

   

4. There have been seven false signals since 1990...

 

4.15 chart 2-1

Source: Ecnomics and Strategy Group, National Bank of Canada, as of 4/12/19

  

   

5. A fun illustration that might suggest inflation is larger than thought...

 

 4.15 chart 5

Source: Piper Jaffray, as of 4/10/19

 

  

6. This chart helps answer a specific question we received from our quarterly call. 

 

 

Source: Arbor Data Science, as of 4/15/19

 

 

7. Yields on junk bonds continue to drift lower...

 

 4.15 chart 13

Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 4/15/19

 


8. Companies buying back their stock was illegal until 1982. Probably not the data one would expect...

 

 

Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 4/15/19

 

 

9. Will this trend start to derail the SUV and pick-up truck demand?

  

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/12/19

 

 

 

10. Perhaps the U.K. should have another referendum and be done with it...

 

 4.15 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/12/19

 

   

11. Less bad news is good news!
 

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/15/19

  

 

12. Suddenly India is on the brink of industrial production shrinking...

 

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/12/19

  

 

13. One big average, but entertaining...

 

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/15/19

 

 

 

A dovish Fed, declining PMIs, U.S. Housing, and the inverted yield curve. At the end of 2018, the markets traded as if a recession was on the horizon. Can we say the same looking back at Q1 2019? For a download on the BCM Investment Team's research on 1Q 2019, find our commentary below. 

BCM 1Q 2019 Market Commentary

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.