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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: The Goldilocks of Investment Grade Bonds, The Price of Oil, Another Disappointing FED Survey

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Apr24, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Stocks have recovered better than the earnings outlook anticipated and Jurien Timmer's take on the S&P 500 price index is that it is higher than it should be. Moving to credit, investment grade bonds perform best in a moderate growth environment- not too low, but not too high either. As the world's number one export product in 2018, crude oil production in the U.S. rose to over 10 million barrels a day last year. Next, yet another disappointing regional FED survey. Finally, number of international home buyers in the U.S. dropped 6% YOY.

  

1. In the short run, stock markets often appear irrational. This is largely due to human bias in interpretation...

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/24/19

  

 

2. Jurrien Timmer's latest.

 

4.24 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

 

3. This might explain the recent relative weakness in REITs......

4.24 chart 4

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

 

4. How have asset classes performed under various GDP growth rates?
 

4.24 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

  

5. Notice this at the pumps?   

 

4.24 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/23/19

 

 

6. No, this chart is not from the 1950's...its current!

 

4.24 chart 2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

 

7. Not tragic, but another disappointing regional FED survey.

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/24/19

  

  

8. We will let the politicians comment on this one....

  

 4.24 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

  

 

 

9. Why are some new housing towers dark every night?  "No one" lives in them...

 

 4.24 chart 9

Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/24/19

 

Risk is always top of mind for us even when the markets are going in a positive direction. As investors, you know you must weather times of market volatility to stay the course. For our latest insights on risk, investment losses, and if you are thinking about risk the "right way", read BCM's featured insights in Barron's: The Stock Market is Risky. Here's What You Can Do About It. 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.