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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: The FED Adopts New Inflation Strategy, South Korea Contracts, What  Happens if Oil Reaches $100/barrel

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Apr26, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

With 20% of companies reported, S&P 500 1st quarter earnings are up 0.2% year over year, which is the slowest growth trend seen since Q1 2016. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his committee have made an important shift in their strategy for dealing with inflation targeting. How will this play out if the change is implemented, especially in this slowing market environment? Initial jobless claims rose above last year's level. Why we have been paying such close attention to energy lately: See the impact on global growth inflation if oil reaches $100/barrel. South Korea's contraction is shocking in GDP data. Finally, we hope you have a fantastic weekend.

 

 

1. If we take out FAANG (new tech), this looks ugly!

4.26 chart 9

 Source: S&P Dow Jones, as of 4/26/19

 

 

2. Is another Dovish move in store at the FED?

4.26 chart 3-1

 Source: BEA, as of 4/25/19

 

 

3. Despite a dramatic course reversal, is the FED being "out-doved" by other central banks? The USD has broken out of its S/T trading range...

 

 4.26 chart 1

Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/24/19

  

 

4. ...Our interest rates are as much as 3% higher than our competition...

 

4.26 chart 2

Source: Macrobond, as of 4/25/19

 

  

5. Why energy prices matter... 

 

4.26 chart 11-2

 

 Source: Oxford Economics, as of 4/26/19

 

 

  

6. A sign of recovery?
 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/22/19

 

 

 

7. Decathlon is based on machine learning and Artificial intelligence (AI) and has been for years...

 

4.26 chart 6

Source: PWC/CB Insights, as of 4/25/19

 

 

8. Not tragic, but the downtrend has been re-established...

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/25/19

  

  

9. This could be a canary in the coal mine if it continues...

  

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/26/19

 

 

 

 

10. An update on the effects of tariffs...

 

4.26 chart 12-1

 Source: CPB, as of 4/26/19

 

  

11. Another economy falling from slower growth to outright contraction...

 

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/23/19

 

  

12. Interesting... 

 

4.26 chart 10-1

 Source: JP Morgan, as of 4/26/19

 

 

The BCM Management and Investment team is looking forward to traveling to beautiful city of Austin, TX for the 2019 Envestnet Advisor Summit, just 5 days away! Will we see you there? If so, let us know below. We have a few reasons for you to get excited (besides the warm weather, live music, endless networking opportunities) for #ENVSummit this year.

 

Yes, I plan to attend this year's   Envestnet Advisor Summit

 

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.