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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Global Earnings Halved, Housing Markets, and Are We Seeing an Emerging Market Rally?

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Apr05, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

 

Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary are expected to lead sector earnings for the rest of the year. Global economic data momentum has deteriorated to multi-year lows. In Europe, the February German factory orders report was sobering. An example of how data sets can mislead: we refute the claim that Tokyo housing prices have barely budged since the beginning of this century. Finally, we are crossing our fingers on Emerging Market data.

  

1. Earnings broken out by sector.

 

4.5 chart 9

Source: SSGA, as of 4/5/19

 

 

2. SSGA's Earnings estimates. They have been more than halved in the last 6 months...

  

4.5 chart 8

Source: SSGA, as of 4/5/19

 

 

3. A nice summary of what we have outlined for the last year or so...

 

 4.5 chart 4

Source: Citigroup, as of 4/5/19

 

 

4. Have the emerging markets economies turned the corner? March data has them on the mend...

 

4.5 chart 3

Source: Markit, as of 4/4/19

 

  

5. A $64,000 question...

 

 4.5 chart 7

Source: FactSet, as of 4/5/19

  

 

6. A classic example of how data sets and figures can mislead. Tokyo has been stagnant because of what happened in the 15 years prior...

 

4.5 chart 2

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, as of 4/4/19

 

 

7. Sigh...

4.5 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/5/19

 

 

8. The German consumer (Domestic) is still ok, it is the lack of foreign trade that is choking manufacturing....

 

 4.5 chart 6

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 4/3/19

 

 

9. Tariffs at work?

 

4.5 chart 1


Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics, as of 4/4/19

  

  

 

 

   

 

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Factor Investing Landscape of 2019

 

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.