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Fireside Charts: U.S. Core PCE Inflation, Consumer Spending, The Cost of Renting vs. Owning a Home in Each State

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:May01, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Consumer inflation has been slowing. The Dallas FED manufacturing index signaled slower expansion in Texas-area factory activity. The Chicago FED also missed its mark in its latest report, amaking it even more clear that manufacturing is not the driving force behind our Q1 GDP. Consumer spending exploded in March, greatly beating out forecasts. Will the U.S. consumer be our saving grace? After steadily rising for the past two years, home ownership rates dropped in the first quarter of 2019. Our final chart answers a burning question for many: is it currently cheaper to rent or buy a home in the U.S? 


1. Modest inflation numbers may allow the FED to get more Dovish by changing their PCE target from 2% to an average of 2% over time. This effectively raises the target to greater than 2% without saying it...


 5.1 chart 1

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/29/19



2. With another regional FED disappointing, clearly manufacturing is not the driver of GDP.

  Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/29/19



3. The Chicago FED also missed badly. Will the consumer continue to save the day?


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/30/19



4. ...enter our new "hero", the U.S. consumer!

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/29/19



5. Good news, but it is hard to get excited about 0.4% growth...

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 4/29/19



6. With home ownership rates down for Q1, is is still cheaper to rent over buying? 


 5.1 chart 6

Source: Howmuch.net, as of 5/1/19



Through the Q1 reporting and financial news outlet noise, read BCM’s 1Q19 Market Commentary for insights straight from our Investment Team. Why are equity markets and GDP data contradicting the other? Should you have cause for concern? Read below to find out.


BCM 1Q 2019 Market Commentary





Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.