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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Equities React to the FOMC and Powell, Global Manufacturing PMIs, Weakness Persists in World Trade

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:May03, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

TGIF! U.S. labor productivity jumped last quarter, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Yesterday, rates and currency markets continued to adjust to the latest from the Federal Reserve. FED officials on Wednesday voted to hold steady to their benchmark federal-funds rate in a range between 2.25% and 2.5%. See the U.S. markets' longer-term performance compared to the rest of the world. The weak regional manufacturing reports have shown up in the overall PMI. Plus, the PMIs of Canada, Switzerland, South Korea, and more have shown mixed results. Finally, economists remain concerned about the weakness in global trade activity.


1. Despite cell phone "checking", U.S. productivity surged. This is great news as increased productivity can allow growth to occur without inflation...



Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



2. Are the markets pricing in a "perfect" FED policy?  What one comment can do:



 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



3. Here are the equity market reactions:

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



4. The generally weak manufacturing in regional FED surveys have shown up in the PMI. 


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



5. International opportunities abound...


 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/2/19



6. Our northern neighbor:

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



7. A massive rebound.

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/1/19



8. Despite Italy and Spain's slight rebound in PMI...


Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/2/19



9. Our southern neighbor's PMI stabilized...

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 5/2/19




10. If the much anticipated (and largely priced into the equity markets) Chinese trade deal does not come with tariff eliminations then things could get bumpy...



Source: Economics and Strategy Group, National Bank of Canada, as of 5/1/19





Through the Q1 reporting and financial news outlet noise, read BCM’s 1Q19 Market Commentary for insights straight from our Investment Team. Why are equity markets and GDP data contradicting the other? Should you have cause for concern? Read below to find out.


BCM 1Q 2019 Market Commentary





Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.