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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Trade Dispute May Derail LEIs, Dr. Copper Prescribes Caution, Nations with Twin Deficits

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:May10, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Today's blog post begins with a wedge being formed between the S&P 500's 50 and 200 moving day averages. Is this cause for concern? According to some data, leading indicators have improved, except for copper, which has held well up until recently. We have written about our concern for the crippling debt in our country. Nobody wants to buy the 10-year note. Will this week's trade dispute derail this momentum? Lastly, which nations are running twin deficits?

  

1. One opinion from a long-time chartist...

 

Source: Thechartstore.com, as of 5/9/19

 

 

2. "Dr. Copper" is also prescribing caution...

 

Source: The Sevens Report, as of 5/9/19

 

 

3. Despite pledges of taking QE "to the moon", the BOJ has been quietly slowing their pace of QE...



Source: Pantheon Macroeconomics, as of 5/9/19

 

 

4. Which one of these is going to turn?



Source: Pictet WM-AA&MR, as of 5/9/19

 

 

5. We have written extensively about the amount of U.S. debt and who is going to buy it all. Increased supply with relatively constant demand will shrink the bid to cover ratio at the Treasury auctions...

 

 

Source: Bloomberg, as of 5/7/19

  

 

6. Good news unless the trade war turns the LEIs once again.

 Source: Market Ethos, as of 5/7/19

  

 

7. Who has the most debt and the largest budget deficits?

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, as of 5/9/19

 

 

    

 

 

The U.S.-China trade struggle: where are we know? As we said in our last blog, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office have formally raised tariffs to 25% from 10% on about $200 billion a year of Chinese import. Dependent on today's market close, we may see the worst weekly return this year as the trade tension is back in the forefront of global stocks exchanges. 

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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.