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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 9.24.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Sep24, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

Unemployment filings for American workers are still at its lowest level since 1973. The market may be long in the tooth in our opinion, and a view of the smart money flow index supports this notion. Over in Europe, Italy's fiscal situation remains a concern. A final chart shows China's progress in reducing tariffs. 

 

1. A little dollar weakness has helped stabilize EM stocks, bonds and currencies. Will it continue?

 

9.24 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

2. Small Caps have given up some of their YTD lead.


9.24 chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 9/24/18

 

 

3. This is confirmation bias on our part...this market is getting long in the tooth...but that is just our opinion...

 

9.24 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/19/18

 

 

4. Suddenly the majority of the U.S.'s real interest rates have moved into positive territory.

 

9.24 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

5. So far this housing cycle recovery has only gotten back to the roughly the trough levels of previous recessions.

 

 9.24 chart 10

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

6. This is impressive! Cohorts of the population certainly play a role as ~10,000 "Boomers" retire every day...

 

us continuing jobless claims

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/20/18

 

 

7. ...Greek bank stocks are responding to the economic reality....

 

shares of greek banks

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/20/18

 

 

8. Yet Greece's modest surplus is shrinking and is not nearly large enough to pay of their "wall of debt" in 2019...

 

eu is counting on italy

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/21/18

 

 

9. A historic perspective on U.S. tariffs.

 

9.24 chart 11-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

10. A nice depiction of how any future trade war escalation will hurt the consumer (red)...


us imports of china by broad economic category

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/21/18

 

 

11. Perhaps this is less about deficits and more about currency and protection of intellectual property?

 

china has made a lot of progress reducing tariffs

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/21/18

 

 

Now that we are in the longest bull market our nation has ever seen, we would like to make a preemptive call in case of a market fall. Today, you have the opportunity to prevent a future bear market from disproportionately ruining years of investment progress. If you would like to learn more, read “A Final Call Before the Fall” on the BCM Blog.

 

A Final Call Before the Fall

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.