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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 9.26.18

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Sep26, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

The U.S. stock market has enjoyed a positive return this year, unlike most of its major asset class counterparts. U.S. Corporate earnings forecasts are still growing, but Chinese earnings are getting trimmed down as a result of the ongoing trade war. Finally, do you know which companies contributed most to the S&P 500 gains this year? Which ones dragged on performance?

 

1. So far the U.S. has been an island. Important to share with clients!

 

9.26 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

2. Looks like the tailwind of the tax package is ending...


9.26 chart 2

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 9/25/18

 

 

3. Higher interest rates are taking their toll on the homebuilders as well as the banks (lower lending demand) and REITS...

 

9.26 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/2518

 

 

4. Rates are quietly rising across the yield curve... even at the long end such as mortgages.

 

9.26 chart 5-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

5. Lest anyone thinks tariffs are benign...

 

9.26 chart 10

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

6. Given the negative EPS warnings noted above in chart 2, we wonder if the U.S. earnings will look more like China's if this trade war continues.

 

9.26 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/25/18

 

 

7. When the full effects of the latest round of tariffs are felt by the U.S. consumer, attitudes may start to change.  Just ask a farmer... 

 

9.26 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

8. The trade war is having a profound negative effect on Europe's economy which is exacerbating other issues...

 

9.26 chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/20/18

 

 

9. An interesting statistic.

 

9.26 chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/20/18

 

 

10. One of the pitfalls of a market cap weighted index is the leadership, in both directions, can be very narrow...

 

9.26 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/25/18

 

 

Now that we are in the longest bull market our nation has ever seen, we would like to make a preemptive call in case of a market fall. Today, you have the opportunity to prevent a future bear market from disproportionately ruining years of investment progress. If you would like to learn more, read “A Final Call Before the Fall” on the BCM Blog.

 

A Final Call Before the Fall

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.