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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 9.28.18 - Bonus Friday!

by : BCM Investment Team | POSTED: Sep28, 2018 | CATEGORY: Fireside Charts, Equity, Economics, Market Highlights

Happy Bonus Friday! The US trade deficit in goods is substantially worse than expected. The market expects another rate hike in December and we know too well this is going too far and fast into a policy mistakeCapital goods orders (machinery, equipment, etc.), which is an indication of business investment activity, were light this past quarter. Lastly, we wrap up with a "food for thought" chart on cost of natural disaster destruction in the U.S.

 

1. The S&P 500 is not the only index undergoing significant change... 

 

9.28 chart 10

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/27/18

 

 

2. A strong USD has helped make this worse...

 

9.28 chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

3. Even if we "win" a battle or two in a trade war with China, it will still hurt our economy...

 

9.28 chart 12

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/27/18 

 

 

4. Is the trade war catching up to us?

 

9.28 chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

5. This is why the U.S. farmer is getting hurt so badly...

 

9.28 chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/2518

 

 

6. Lest anyone thinks tariffs are benign...

 

9.28 chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/24/18

 

 

7. The FED is making the same policy mistake they have made in every past rate hike cycle...too far too fast...all while they expect GDP growth to be below 2%.

 

9.28 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

8. What will snuff this out first, the trade war or the FED raising rates? 

 

9.28 chart 9

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

 

9. For this level of inflation we are getting 3-4 interest rate hikes a year?


9.28 chart 2-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot; As of 9/25/18

 

 

10. We live in a global economy... 

 

9.28 chart 11

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/27/18 

 

 

11. The cost of Mother Nature's destruction in the U.S. 

 

9.28 chart 7-1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, As of 9/26/18

 

Did you know today is the day the new GICS® sector reclassifications, upon which S&P and MSCI base hundreds of indices, will finally be complete? Check out our latest blogpost on why the sector shakeup should matter to you and your investment strategies. 

 

 Why the Upcoming GICS Sector Shakeup Matters

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.