Today's Bonus Friday kicks off with a chart on the current economic cycle indicating that we still have room to run in this long expansion. Several charts on volatility confirm when it increases, it stays high for long periods. Q1 GDP growth was weaker than expected as trade war fears pop up in the data.
Total housing completions have clawed their way back only about half way to where they were pre-recession. Agricultural commodities tumbled on Monday amid heightened trade policy risks. Some good news coming out of China with positive revenue and profit growth. Plus, a great chart on adoption of innovations in the US wraps up today's post.
We start this Bonus Friday Fireside Charts by showing the world's top exporters. We include a summary of the newly implemented, announced, and/or threatened US tariffs as well as an alarming picture of the current state of Social Security. Plus, the race toward $1 trillion market cap: who will come out on top?
Shipping activity in the US remains well above the levels we saw in previous years, a look at General Electric since getting bumped out of the DOW Jones Industrial Index as the relative weight of defensive stocks in the S&P 500 continues to trend lower, and the renminbi took a hit in response to the US-China escalating trade dispute.
These days I do a lot of travel. I’m writing this at 36,000 feet headed for Phoenix. I’d like to share a story about how we travel versus where we are trying to go. My hope is to give you a different perspective on how you manage clients’ money and your business.
The yield curve has flattened significantly in the past week, the USD confirms its strength is hurting most commodities and more updates on global government bonds in today's Fireside Charts. Plus a look at shadow economies around the world...could this be contributing to Italy's unfolding crisis?
Have you been curious to know who is really funding the federal deficit? And who are the largest holders of U.S. debt? Answers to these and more charts on the crisis in Latin America, U.S. GDP, U.S. Investment grade credit, and the price producer index in today's chart blog.
Further evidence in the argument against tariffs as steel prices diverge around the globe. The headline CPI hit 2.8%, driven in part by higher gasoline prices (up 21% from the same time last year). The US non-petroleum trade deficit is approaching record levels as we give additional updates on high yield, emerging markets, and sectors.
With President Trump and Kim Jon-un scheduled to meet tomorrow and the fed expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, this week is sure to be action-packed. We've kept today's blog brief in anticipation of the events to come. Below, we take a look at the trade-weighted USD, US trade with historical context, and disposable income vs. outstanding credit since 1959.
As threats to escalate the trade war loom, BCM Portfolio Manager Dave Haviland has updated and expanded our original piece on "Trade, Tariffs and Tirades: A Primer on What Has the Markets in a Dither" from last month. For the latest on trade concerns, plus historical and current significance to the global economy, read more from the BCM Blog.
Year-to-date performance of the various style factors is shown as growth shares continue to outperform value. Several charts illustrate our passion within the tariff and trade climate, and why we have done our own research on the topic. Emerging market currencies in Mexico and Brazil enter a decline alongside their neighboring countries.
A great recap chart shows the trend and rate of change of U.S. manufacturing. COGS (costs of good sold) has been rising since 2016 as we also explore countries threatening retaliation on tariffs, a history of U.S. crude oil production back to the 20th century, commodities, and unemployment.