Happy Bonus Friday! The US trade deficit in goods is substantially worse than expected. The market expects another rate hike in December and we know too well this is going too far and fast into a policy mistake. Capital goods orders (machinery, equipment, etc.), which is an indication of business investment activity, were light this past quarter. Lastly, we wrap up with
Tomorrow, September 28th, the S&P is making some big changes to the sectors of the S&P 500® Index. These changes will have an impact on the overall market and will also impact how Beaumont Capital Management (BCM) strategies will track the overall market.
The U.S. stock market has enjoyed a positive return this year, unlike most of its major asset class counterparts. U.S. Corporate earnings forecasts are still growing, but Chinese earnings are getting trimmed down as a result of the ongoing trade war. Finally, do you know which companies contributed most to the S&P 500 gains this year? Which ones dragged on performance?
Unemployment filings for American workers are still at its lowest level since 1973. The market may be long in the tooth in our opinion, and a view of the smart money flow index supports this notion. Over in Europe, Italy's fiscal situation remains a concern. A final chart shows China's progress in reducing tariffs.
We have enjoyed the current bull market which recently surpassed the 1990-2000 technology-led bull as the longest bull ever.
The yuan is drifting lower again as the Trump administration officially imposed additional tariffs, which go in to effect Monday. The Chinese government has retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. Manufacturers are less sure about the future, and growth is likely to suffer as a consequence. The U.S. 10 year bond yield quickly accelerated this week. We wrap this post with a look at how expensive the U.S. markets have ...
An update on the current year Emerging Market (EM) drawdown illustrates just how much some South American nations have suffered.19 out of 23 EM equity indices are below the 50- and the 200-day moving averages. The U.S. is about to hit $200 billion worth of additional imports from China with a tariff as high as 25%. Finally, take a look at how tariffs have impacted industrial metals and the U.S. farmer so far. Which Chinese import will take a hit next?
A shakeup in the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) later this month will have far-reaching implications for portfolio management. Momentum resumed leadership among equity factors. The 35+ year bond bull market may be on its last legs and we share perspectives on unemployment and payroll change by industry. Plus a look at China's stock market and currency trending lower while the trade surplus with the U.S. trends higher. Will this solidify the White House's decision to ...
Editor's Note: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not be the opinions of Beaumont Capital Management (BCM).
Monday’s holiday means there will only be one chart blog post this week, but we promise it’s a good one! September has a bad reputation for being the worst month for stocks until you identify the outlier. The core PCE (the Fed's preferred measure of inflation) finally reached the 2% target and the trend continues upwards. A look into the repercussions of retaliatory tariffs. Is another Greece rescue package on the horizon for 2019?