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Fireside Charts 10.31.18

October 31, 2018

Happy Halloween! We are crossing our fingers that the markets aren't spooked today. Globally, stocks are having a terrible month in terms of market value loss. The run-up of federal debt in the 1980s and 90s was funded quite differently from the run-up since mid-2008. As this round of tariffs hit, its impact is showing up in the data and the Chinese renminbi is trading at its lowest level in a decade. Scary! Europe's 3Q GDP growth was ...

From the Desk of the PM

October 29, 2018

It looks like some of the issues we have been concerned about, namely rising interest rates and the trade war, have finally caught up to us. In addition, there have been some high profile missed earnings, bombs being mailed to prominent figures, BREXIT, and Italy’s budget crisis. Discourse at home and abroad is not helping. The result has been that October has been difficult to endure.

Fireside Charts 10.29.18

October 29, 2018

Q3 sales and earnings growth looks good with numbers just below last quarter. Although GDP reports came in stronger than expected, business investment has slowed down since Q1 2018. Investment in fixed structures like factories dropped following the most significant corporate tax overhaul in three decades. Most stocks are now above the 50-day moving average. Lastly, do you know how tax-friendly your state is? 

Fireside Charts 10.26.18

October 26, 2018

This week's volatility captured in charts: the S&P continues to converge with global losses, junk bond yields are on the rise, and smart money might be on the move. An interesting look at what happens when markets outrun the Fed's expectations. Finally, US farmers are still taking the brunt of this ongoing trade war. 

Fireside Charts 10.24.18

October 24, 2018

The AUM (assets under management) of ETFs has grown steadily through the last decade, which is music to our ears. With new tax rates and the US dollar value rising, tech companies have been trimming their US Treasury holdings. As supply grows, the demand at treasury auctions has diminished in the last few months. Which nations' banks are most exposed to Italy? Lastly, do you know which commodities have the highest farm sales in the ...

Fireside Charts 10.22.18

October 22, 2018

The U.S. Treasury missed the opportunity to extend debt maturities while rates were near multi-decade lows. As of the end of last month, the total public debt outstanding is over $21 trillion and the debt to GDP ratio is 105.41%. As interest rates continue to rise, home sales are dipping and the Fed needs to take note. Lastly, a chart on technology adoption proves just how swift US households are adapting to new tech. 

Fireside Charts 10.19.18

October 19, 2018

China's missed bond repayments have continued to reach new highs. Is this a precursor to recessionary environments? We also include a view of the progression of tariffs on Chinese imports. In Europe, the ECB is winding down its Quantitative Easing program. The government ...

Fireside Charts 10.17.18

October 17, 2018

Emerging Market currencies are finally showing signs of stability. As we have noted before, the 2-year US Treasury real rates have been rising since the Fed started the last hike cycle. This kind of behavior has preceded recessions in the past. Chinese inflation appears to be moderating, so why is the FED worried about importing high inflation? To wrap up, the rapidly aging ...

Fireside Charts 10.15.18

October 15, 2018

Today's chart blog starts with a long term perspective on the S&P 500 as well as the P/E ratio, with data going back to the industrialization age. A shortage of pipeline capacity and refinery maintenance has caused an oversupply of Canadian crude oil, making it far cheaper than Brent or WTI. China's trade surplus ...

Fireside Charts 10.12.18 -Bonus Friday!

October 12, 2018

Today’s blog will attempt to give more color to the issues that have roiled the markets this week. Despite the recent volatility, please have a great weekend!

From the Desk of the PM - Update on Current Market Conditions

October 11, 2018

Yesterday saw the major U.S. stock bourses suffer the worst losses since February. Today, they followed suit. While it may be hard to ignore the financial press’s headlines, we would like to remind everyone of a few pieces of information that should allow most angst to subside.

Fireside Charts 10.10.18

October 10, 2018

The rising bond yields we have recently talked about will mean higher federal interest expenses. The latest weapon in the Chinese trade war arsenal is energy – the Chinese have halted all crude oil imports from the United States. As we noted in our 3Q 18 Commentary, 2018 ...

Fireside Charts 10.8.18

October 8, 2018

Happy Columbus Day, or should we say Indigenous Peoples Day, Discoverers’ Day (Hawaii) or Native American Day (South Dakota)! We begin this week with a look at Small Caps relinquishing nearly all of their outperformance as the fourth quarter kicks off. Now that the GICS sector changes have gone into effect, the new communication services sector should start to act like a growth sector. Additional perspective is provided on Emerging Market currencies’ ongoing struggle, the uptick and steepening in yield curve, ...

Fireside Charts 10.5.18 - Bonus Friday!

October 5, 2018

The 30-year mortgage rate sprung to almost 5%. Strong non-manufacturing PMI and employment data sent the U.S. dollar and bond yields significantly higher. An update on the current trade climate, the trade war has a much more significant impact on corporate profits than on the overall economy. We also share global trade flows in a single chart—make sure you've had coffee before ...

Fireside Charts 10.3.18

October 3, 2018

The Agriculture Economy Barometer declined further in September as U.S. farmers continue to suffer from the effects of retaliatory tariffs. Major automakers reported negative sales last month compared to September 2017. What will happen if tariffs ...

Fireside Charts 10.1.18

October 1, 2018

As of late Sunday night, the United States, Canada, and Mexico reached a new NAFTA deal. However, this does not mean the trade war is over, and we as U.S. consumers are just beginning to feel the repercussions of trade tensions with the 800 pound gorilla... China. Remember: China has imposed tariffs on 80% of U.S. merchandise exports. About 75% of third-quarter earnings guidance has been negative; ...