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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 10.31.18

Happy Halloween! We are crossing our fingers that the markets aren't spooked today. Globally, stocks are having a terrible month in terms of market value loss. The run-up of federal debt in the...

From the Desk of the PM

It looks like some of the issues we have been concerned about, namely rising interest rates and the trade war, have finally caught up to us. In addition, there have been some high profile missed...

Fireside Charts 10.29.18

Q3 sales and earnings growth looks good with numbers just below last quarter. Although GDP reports came in stronger than expected, business investment has slowed down since Q1 2018. Investment in...

Fireside Charts 10.26.18

This week's volatility captured in charts: the S&P continues to converge with global losses, junk bond yields are on the rise, and smart money might be on the move. An interesting look at what...

Fireside Charts 10.24.18

The AUM (assets under management) of ETFs has grown steadily through the last decade, which is music to our ears. With new tax rates and the US dollar value rising, tech companies have been...

Fireside Charts 10.22.18

The U.S. Treasury missed the opportunity to extend debt maturities while rates were near multi-decade lows. As of the end of last month, the total public debt outstanding is over $21 trillion and...

Fireside Charts 10.19.18

China's missed bond repayments have continued to reach new highs. Is this a precursor to recessionary environments? We also include a view of the progression of tariffs on Chinese imports. In...

Fireside Charts 10.17.18

Emerging Market currencies are finally showing signs of stability. As we have noted before, the 2-year US Treasury real rates have been rising since the Fed started the last hike cycle. This kind...

Fireside Charts 10.15.18

Today's chart blog starts with a long term perspective on the S&P 500 as well as the P/E ratio, with data going back to the industrialization age. A shortage of pipeline capacity and refinery...

Fireside Charts 10.12.18 -Bonus Friday!

Today’s blog will attempt to give more color to the issues that have roiled the markets this week. Despite the recent volatility, please have a great weekend!

From the Desk of the PM - Update on Current Market Conditions

Yesterday saw the major U.S. stock bourses suffer the worst losses since February. Today, they followed suit. While it may be hard to ignore the financial press’s headlines, we would like to remind...

Fireside Charts 10.10.18

The rising bond yields we have recently talked about will mean higher federal interest expenses. The latest weapon in the Chinese trade war arsenal is energy – the Chinese have halted all crude...

Are you wearing rose colored glasses? Take them off and you might see Bifurcated Markets, Tariffs, and Tempered Earnings Expectations

“These rose colored glasses

That I'm looking through

Show only the beauty

'Cause they hide all the truth”

-John W Conlee

Fireside Charts 10.8.18

Happy Columbus Day, or should we say Indigenous Peoples Day, Discoverers’ Day (Hawaii) or Native American Day (South Dakota)! We begin this week with a look at Small Caps relinquishing nearly all...

Fireside Charts 10.5.18 - Bonus Friday!

The 30-year mortgage rate sprung to almost 5%. Strong non-manufacturing PMI and employment data sent the U.S. dollar and bond yields significantly higher. An update on the current trade climate,...

Fireside Charts 10.3.18

The Agriculture Economy Barometer declined further in September as U.S. farmers continue to suffer from the effects of retaliatory tariffs. Major automakers reported negative sales last month...

Fireside Charts 10.1.18

As of late Sunday night, the United States, Canada, and Mexico reached a new NAFTA deal. However, this does not mean the trade war is over, and we as U.S. consumers are just beginning to feel the...