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Fireside Charts 11.30.18

November 30, 2018

We begin the blog today with some good news for Japan. However, expectations point to further weakness in the Japanese manufacturing sector. In the United States, corporate America is bringing more dollars back home and wage growth continues to accelerate. Jerome Powell has been quoted saying the Fed is not on "autopilot" as it raises rates. Will we actually see a pause in rate hikes? Finally, did you know 80% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border?

Fireside Charts 11.28.18

November 28, 2018

2019 and 2020 earnings projections are much lower than this year, which gives us pause. A reminder on why diversification does not always help in periods of market failure. China has gone cold turkey on US oil imports. Remember the updated NAFTA deal? Mexico's stock market hit its lowest level since 2014 this month. The Dallas FED is suffering, echoing the weak results from the NY and Philly regions. Lastly, is it time to finally say goodbye to GE stock?

Fireside Charts 11.26.18

November 26, 2018

Looking forward to the next twelve months, fund managers expect global corporate margins to deteriorate. More Americans have been taking out equity as they refinance their homes, but these refinances pale in comparison to the aggregate amounts between 2006-2008. We let you in on what we mean when we say "canary in the coal mine" in regards to high yield and give an update on oil after its major decline on Friday.

Fireside Charts 11.21.18

November 21, 2018

Today's blog post comes to you on the eve of Thanksgiving. We wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy holiday! After another week of volatility, what do investors consider the biggest risk to the markets - is it the trade war or the FED's quantitative tightening? The U.S. stock market is no longer outperforming the rest of the world. China’s rise in wages is undoubtedly a positive for workers, but China is growing less and less competitive in the ...

Fireside Charts 11.19.18

November 19, 2018

U.S. Q3 earnings were strong across the board relative to earnings forecasts.  However, it’s a worrisome time as junk bond yields spike out of their two year trading range. May was a dramatic turning point for our global economy. Lastly, will U.S. companies follow through with their plans to move manufacturing plants away from China?

Fireside Charts 11.16.18

November 16, 2018

Our nation's exports to China are declining and Asia's manufacturing outlook has weakened. Germany’s GDP is negative for the first time since 2015. High prices and increasing mortgage costs are crushing home sales, in turn hurting homebuilders across the country. Lastly, a look into the potential for U.S. policy tailwinds to diminish over time.

Fireside Charts 11.14.18

November 14, 2018

Crude oil futures are tumbling and lower gasoline prices contributing to the drag on the CPI. Is the divergence of household net worth and U.S. GDP pointing to a bubble? The share buybacks of the U.S. relative to Europe could be an explanation of the gap between their market performance. Lastly, a look at India’s drop in industrial production in 2018.

Fireside Charts 11.12.18

November 12, 2018

To all of the men and women who served our country with incredible bravery and honor, we thank you on this Veteran's Day. This week’s blog post starts with a unique way to view the market with a chart on hours of work needed to buy the entire S&P 500Composite
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Fireside Charts 11.9.18

November 9, 2018

The ISM is reporting a contraction in global PMI, however the major market indices remain above 50 with a few posting a slight uptick. Unemployment has dropped below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. Could this be an indicator of what is to come…and when? The media’s average daily mentions of inflation effect on U.S. treasury yields…is this a legit correlation? Finally, hope for a quick U.S.-China trade deal declines and in turn, so does the Yuan.

Fireside Charts 11.7.18

November 7, 2018

Ever wonder how other countries use international currencies? Thankfully for our sake the dollar is a strong force. Banks are seriously making money and another chart shows the S&P 500 share buybacks and dividends (in dollar terms) over the past couple of decades. The process of increasing leverage to pay dividends is picking up. Lastly, how do real bond yields in the U.S. stack up against the rest of the world? 

Fireside Charts 11.5.18

November 5, 2018

October is behind us and we look forward to the new month with a historical view of the S&P Composite in November and returns surrounding past midterm election seasons. Next, a chart on Corporate America's political donations enlightens us on which sectors lean left and right. Plus, the trade deficit continues to worsen, we are nearing positive real returns across the entire yield curve and the total number of payrolls added in the US was high last month, adding to the multi-year low unemployment data.

Fireside Charts 11.2.18

November 2, 2018

Although significant economic measures came out of October such as wage increases and strong U.S. employment, the S&P had the worst returns in October of midterm election years since 1950. . From the Treasury Department, the federal government is projected to borrow a total of $1.3 trillion this year, which is more than double the amount borrowed last year. Did you know U.S. semiconductor firms are heavily exposed to China? A final chart to wrap up this blog shows the most ...