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Fireside Charts 12.21.18

December 21, 2018

Economic forecasts for Q4 GDP growth are still healthy, with many predictions ranging between 2.5% and 2.9% (annualized). From the Philly Fed regional manufacturing index, we can see that factory activity continues to moderate. Although Emerging Market indices have had quite the ride, they are still holding up better than the S&P. Finally, we wrap up this blog post with some insight on Japan's inverted yield curve and trade deficit.


Fireside Charts will not be published the week of 12/24 due to the holidays. We wish you a Happy ...

Fireside Charts 12.19.18

December 19, 2018

The S&P 500 was sent to a 14-month low this week as we continue to see more dire changes in the data. What are you doing to prepare? Copper fell alongside stocks and other assets. Corporations will be refinancing at newly heightened interest rates, which poses a significant threat to those who took advantage the previously low interest rate environment. Homebuilder pessimism stands out in the Northeast, and some are attributing these fears to the new tax laws. 

Fireside Charts 12.17.18

December 17, 2018

We start today's blog post with PMI indicators for US services and manufacturing for December. There is certainly some moderation (from the recent highs) in business activity. The U.S. dollar has been exceptionally strong in light of market swings lately. Oil may have found its footing. Next, we share a rather bleak picture of Europe's Q4 GDP. What's the sale price for your stolen data? 

Fireside Charts 12.14.18

December 14, 2018

Across the globe, corporate revenues have declined in the last few weeks. This is not positive news, considering almost half of the S&P 500 Index® revenue comes from overseas. Recent GDP revisions have been down for many economies, especially those in Europe and Latin America. The federal budget deficit is expected to accelerate over the next few years. Are we at all surprised? Lastly, further deterioration to China's economy is overshadowing positive strides for Japan's.


We want to acknowledge that as of late our ...

It's Time to Talk About the R-Word

December 14, 2018

As we frequently like to point out, no one knows what will happen to the markets or the economy over the short term. Not tomorrow, next week, next quarter 

Fireside Charts 12.12.18

December 12, 2018

Today's Fireside Chart's includes updates on Germany's GDP and bond yields; the U.S. yield curve, the inversion and the increasing statistical probability of a recession; a snapshot of recent market action and major indices breaking intermediate- and longer-term trend lines; and finally, a disappointing reality check on the tax collected from tariffs. 

Fireside Charts 12.10.18

December 10, 2018

With the holiday season upon us, will a boost in retail sales help improve S&P 500 performance? The DOW Transportation Average is giving off bearish signals. Oil has cascaded down over 40% in last couple of months. What do next year’s rate hikes look like priced into the futures markets? Net trade has been a drag on European nations' GDP – further proof that the trade war’s effects are globalized. What do next year’s rate hikes look like priced into the futures markets?

Fireside Charts 12.7.18

December 7, 2018

We kick off our Friday chart blog with a look at the historical correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions. What does this mean for the U.S. economy, whose PMI remains strong throughout the latest market turmoil? Meanwhile in Europe, PMI has been on a steep downward slope since September. Lastly, will the new tax package harm the rate of charitable giving this year? 

Anatomy of a Bear Market

December 6, 2018

What does a typical Bear market look like? How long do they last? When are the majority of the losses incurred? Most investors believe that the losses occur fairly evenly throughout the Bear. Based on the past, with one notable exception, nothing could be further from the truth.


Fireside Charts 12.5.18

December 5, 2018

The markets are closed today in honor of the passing of President George H.W. Bush. We remember his legacy and service on this national day of mourning. On Monday, the yield curve inverted overnight. Historically speaking, what will happen if it remains inverted or the inversion widens?  November fund flows indicate move towards defense. The U.S. economy is showing strength in the ISM manufacturing index. Is U.S. housing data flashing warning signs? Even across the globe in Australia, GDP is slowing down.

Fireside Charts 12.3.18

December 3, 2018

The leading economic indicator for Europe shows the scale of the significant drawdowns that have preceded recessions. The decline in Europe's trade surplus has been the sharpest in decades. President Trump and Xi Jinping enter into a 90- day trade truce. Will this temporary solution lead to the end of the trade dispute, or will someone break the truce? The trade war does not stop in China: both South Korea and Taiwan's manufacturing is in ...