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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Changes to the Aggregate Bond Index that Advisors Should Know About: Part One

In 2018, the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (BBAB) eked out a whopping 0.01% return and thus preserved a rather remarkable streak of only having one negative year since 1999. What’s new...

Fireside Charts: Q1 2019 Growth, American Farmers Struggle, and a Strong Yuan out of China

 

Following Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Monday, Treasury yields and the US dollar shot lower. If only we could write to him directly!  The current economic expansion that started in...

Fireside Charts: Communications Sector Performance, Policy Rate Peaks, and Money Supply Expansion

Friday’s market close, marking the longest win streak for the DOW in over two decades, only further proves our recent comments on how extreme 2019 has been thus far. The relatively new...

Fireside Charts: Dovish FED report, earnings expectations still declining, China's economic slowdown beyond the trade war

We are saying "TGIF" after a momentous week for the markets. Between the Federal Reserve's Meeting Minutes indicating it will end the shrinking of its $4 trillion balance sheet and meetings...

An Open Letter to Jerome Powell

Dear Jerome Powell, I write this letter with the utmost gratitude and respect. You see, unlike your predecessors, this time you and your Committee acted quickly, decisively and appropriately to a...

Fireside Charts 2.20.19

The percentage of S&P 500 above the 50-Day moving average underscores that stocks still are swinging from extreme highs to extreme lows. Are you prepared for another month of volatility? We can...

Fireside Charts 2.15.19

On this day in 1985, the S&P 500 closed at $181.60 and the price of a movie ticket cost only $2.75. A movie ticket today costs about $14.19! Speaking of inflation... follow oil prices and you can...

Fireside Charts 2.13.19

As the March 2 deadline for the U.S.-China trade deal approaches and U.S. debt hit a new high of $22 trillion, the latest earnings growth expectations for 2019 do not look encouraging. A chart on...

Fireside Charts 2.11.19

In today's Fireside Charts, the Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey results show that the US-China trade war is among investors’ top concerns in global economics. How will a hard landing for China...

Fireside Charts 2.8.19

Which emotion is driving the market right now? At the end of 2018, we saw extreme fear, but now investors are moving towards greed. With the U.S. oil trade deficit nearly behind us, we are poised...

Fireside Charts 2.6.19

Tariff talks resume in Washington this week between the U.S. and China following the State of the Union and a few strong (and surprising!) earnings reports. With global orders declining, the...

The Probability of Another 20%+ Drawdown is Higher Than You Might Expect

At BCM, we believe mitigating large drawdowns can be a crucial component of long-term investment success for investors. As such, we offer investment strategies that seek to provide growth with...

Fireside Charts 2.4.19

The Patriots prevailed last night, so we begin our Monday chart blog with more good news! The ISM Manufacturing PMI report exceeded forecasts and showed U.S. manufacturing increased in January. A...

Fireside Charts 2.1.19

Let this sink in: after the worst December in almost a century, it was the best January for U.S. stocks in 30 years. Are the markets going too far, too fast? The U.S. added jobs last month despite...