The third quarter certainly felt a bit calmer in relation to the wild market rides experienced in Q1 and Q2, but important developments remained—a new inflation policy from the Fed, sky-high political tension, and equities’ first negative month since March to name a few. What does it all mean for investors as we head into Q4? Click below to hear BCM Lead Portfolio Manager Dave Haviland provide a review of the third quarter and what you should be keeping an eye on as we move forward:
The S&P 500® Index’s 8.5% third-quarter gain was a welcome response to the first half of the year’s histrionics. The quarter had its own volatility as the markets flirted with a 10% correction, but then resolutely continued climbing the proverbial wall of worry. Ultimately, the trends that were in place at the beginning of the quarter continued and little changed.
We’ve come a long way since the onset of the Covid-19 crisis and resultant market meltdown in Q1—the S&P 500® Index has erased its losses for the year and the Nasdaq has hit new all-time highs—but we’re far from out of the woods.
Covid-19 has had a profound effect on all of our lives and seems set to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. We firmly believe that we will prevail over the virus, but it will take more time than any of us want, and the costs in all facets of life have been—and will continue to be—enormous.
The Covid-19 pandemic has set upon the globe with lightning speed and is unlikely to leave us anytime soon. First and foremost, we hope that you, your family and loved ones are well. While the level of disruption that the virus has caused to our daily lives is unprecedented, we wish to offer hope with a healthy dose of realism.
The third quarter of 2019 was full of noise and lacking substance. There was a terrorist attack on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, which affected the price of oil for about two weeks, and now oil is right back where it started. The U.S. dollar continued to grind higher and has now appreciated ~12.6% since its 2/16/2018 low. Manufacturing and trade continued to wane as the trade war drags on.
Which index has realized the highest 1-year return through June 30th, 2019?