FIRESIDE CHARTS
The Great Return to work?, Inflation looks to be headed lower and Global business cycles continue to diverge
Most data is pointing towards improving supply constraints in both physical goods and the labor market, likely implying declining inflation in the near-term. Russia has shut down the NordStream pipeline further exacerbating Europe’s energy…
Federal Reserve Officials Talk Tough At Jackson Hole, Interest Rates Rise, and Equity Markets Fall
At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials dissuaded the market of any notion that a pivot is around the corner. These communications, coupled with more positive economic data, sent interest rates up…
2023 Cuts No Longer Priced In, Companies Capitalize on Lower Equity Prices, and Update on Manufacturing
After recent economic data exceeded expectations, futures markets are no longer pricing in cuts to the Federal Funds rate in the first half of 2023. The markets are giving the Federal Reserve room act…
Jobs Recover to Pre-pandemic Levels, Market Bets on Falling Inflation, GDP Expected to Rebound in Q3
With the release of last Friday’s jobs report the U.S. economy has now recovered all of the jobs lost during the pandemic, a momentous achievement. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue tightening…
Global PMI Contracts, First “Full Employment” Recession, and the Mortgage Rate and 10-year UST Spread
The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite…
Recession is now Consensus, Housing Inventory Rising, and the Return of Yield
A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to…
Market Signaling a Curb in Inflation Fears, Tech Companies are “Right Sizing”, The Supply/Demand “Bullwhip”
The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the…
VIDEO: BCM’s 2Q22 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM-Looking Ahead to a (Hopefully) Brighter Future
This has been one of the most difficult investment environments with simultaneous declines in bond and stocks, and a number of external shocks. However, the odds are in the favor of investors. Click below to…
BCM 2Q22 Market Commentary: Capturing Opportunities in an Otherwise Painful Market Environment
The first half of 2022 has been one of the most difficult investment environments in the past 40 years due to the simultaneous decline of bonds with stocks, and an unprecedented mix of external shocks…
Fixed Income Fails to Mitigate Downside Risk, Sentiment and Unemployment Decouple, and Rate Hikes Are Priced In
As the second quarter comes to an end, it’s been an incredible difficult year especially for investors with traditionally conservative allocations. Low unemployment has historically corresponded to strong…