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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Surprising Look at Equity Returns vs. Long Treasuries, Bitcoin Losses, and a Sobering Look at Global Manufacturing

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jul03, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Are you ready for the holiday weekend? In case you are not sure where to watch the fireworks, here is a list CNN put together of the best firework shows nationwide. In terms of the markets, let's kick off the July 4th holiday with a view of equity returns versus long-term treasuries. Are you surprised? Since bitcoin has crept its way back into the news, here is a look where bitcoin stands versus its rivals. Then, the remainder of today's post shows a grim view on global manufacturing which reemphasizes the importance of Trump and Xi Ping resuming trade truce talks. 


1. Does this surprise you?


7.3 Total Return of SP 500 vs Long Term Tresauries

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/3/19



2. With Bitcoin back in the news, here is a chart showing cryptocurrencies' losses:


Source: CoinMarketCap; WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/2/19



3. It is official. We are enjoying the longest economic expansion in our history: ten years and counting. Will the gentle slope allow it to continue a lot longer?


 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/2/19



4. Here is an update on global trade:


7.3 world trade final

Source: Oxford Economics, as of 7/2/19



5. When did the trade war start? About 14 months ago...


 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/2/19



6. A look versus the 10 year...Interesting and perhaps a prescient correlation...


7.3 Global PMI vs US 10 Year

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/3/19



7. We have pointed out before that the U.S. economy is not on an island...the trade war is having the same effect on our manufacturing and we are getting close to contraction...

7.3 chart 8

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/1/19



8. Here is Europe. Yesterday at least 8 countries/economies reported manufacturing contraction.


 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/1/19



9. Brazil had a great trend-bucking report. Will select international opportunities emerge?


7.3 Brazil Manufacturing

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/2/19



10. A sobering synopsis of what has happened to global manufacturing over the past year...


7.3 Manufacturing PMI

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 7/3/19




Our office will be closed for the holiday on July 4th and 5th. Fireside Charts will resume on Monday. Please also keep an eye out for our quarterly commentary which will be posted early next week. 



American Flag We hope everyone has a happy and safe July 4th Holiday Weekend! 








Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.