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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: A Weak Jobs Report, EPS outlook, and will the FED be our Knight in Shining Armor?

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jun07, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Economists predicted to see 180,000 jobs added in May, but the report came in at a dismal 75,000. Unemployment is still at 3.6%. Now it's a matter of when, not if, the FED will move to cut interest rates. We are seeing the formerly resilient job market being affected by the same factors (read: the trade war) hurting other areas of the U.S. economy.  Meanwhile, treasury yields continue to fall sharply. Today in the blog, we cover everything from jobs to the trade war to cell phones and productivity. Wishing you a safe and happy weekend! 

 

1. The ADP jobs report posted the worst miss since December of 2008. Today's official jobs report will be interesting. So far, the weakness is concentrated in manufacturing which is consistent with the trade war's effects to date.

 

6.7 Chart 1

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/7/19



 

2. Just what Europe doesn't need right now...

 

 6.7 Chart 2

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

 

 

 

3. Does this look like a healthy trend?  Will the FED be our shining knight on the white horse?

 

6.7 Chart 3

 Source:  WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

    

 

  

4. The trends to watch...

 

 6.7 Chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

 

 

 

5. Again, U.S. companies and employees will pay the ultimate price in a trade war...

 

 6.7 Chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

   

 

 

6. A yield curve update as the bond markets price in 3 rate cuts this year...
 

 6.7 Chart 6

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

   

 

 

7. Are the bond markets or the stock markets getting it right?

 6.7 Chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

 

 

 

8. Are all the millions of cell phones, being checked dozens of times a day, taking a toll on productivity? Just a thought....

 6.7 Chart 8

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/6/19

 

 

 

 9. What does an escalating trade war look like?

 6.7 Chart 9

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/7/19

 

 

 

10. In the 1970's we had stagflation...low growth and high inflation.  Today, we have low-flation...low growth and low inflation. The Central Banks are stymied as to how to re-ignite more robust growth and inflation.

 

 6.7 Chart 10

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/7/19

 

 

11. After 3 rate cuts so far in 2019, is India's Central Bank ahead of the curve?

 

6.7 Chart 11

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/7/19

 

 

12. Here are some of the options for the ECB:

6.7 Chart 12

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/7/19

 

13. A nice synopsis...

6.7 Chart 13

 

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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.