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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Manufacturing PMI Still Contracting, Corn Shipments Halved, and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outpaces Demand

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Dec04, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Did you spend big this holiday weekend? While consumer sentiment and spending are still strong—Adobe Analytics estimates that sales topped $29 billion between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—strong consumer demand does not look to be trickling through to the manufacturing sector. Domestic and international markets continue in contraction and—despite a small recovery in Germanya manufacturing recession has taken hold in all European nations except France and Eurozone Manufacturing PMI clocked in at a lackluster 46.9. Could that be the driving force behind the ECB's surge in asset purchases (re: QE) after a a very hands-off approach in early 2019? Meanwhile, non-OPEC oil production (including surging U.S. volume) is significantly outpacing demand, making us wonder what's in store for energy prices, and woes continue for the U.S. farmer as corn exports tumble. Finally, when's the best time to buy a Christmas tree? Read on to find out!



1. Will yesterday's comments from the President that "perhaps a trade deal should wait until after the elections," coupled with the state of global manufacturing, beacon a recession? Here is the latest from the U.S.:


ISM manufacturing PMI

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



2. The Fed Regional surveys continue to back up the National survey. Chicago was weak as well.


ism milwaukee pmi

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



3. Once again, the U.S. farmer is stuck holding the bag...


u.s. corn shipments 2019

Source: USDA, from 12/4/19



4. OPEC production cuts are being more than offset by the U.S. and others...


non-opec oil supply vs. demand

Source: Commerzbank Research, from 12/4/19



6. OK, this is no longer in free-fall, but what will the threatened trade war with Europe do?


german markit manufacturing pmi

Source: The Chart Store, from 11/30/19



7. Only France is bucking the European manufacturing recession...


Spain manufacturing pmi

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



8. Here is Europe combined...


markit eurozone manufacturing pmi

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



9. It looks like Mexico will not join Canada with manufacturing growth...


mexican manufacturing pmi

Source: IHS Markit, from 12/3/19



10. GDP looks to be stabilizing in Canada, so a quick trivia question: What is the national sport of Canada? See below for the answer!


Canada GDP yoy 2019

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



11. What prominent country is missing from this list?


foreign exchange reserves

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/4/19



12. Does procrastinating have its benefits?


Christmas tree prices

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/3/19



Answer: Canada's national sport is box lacrosse!


We're all taken by surprise sometimes (we would have sworn the answer was hockey), but that doesn't mean you have to be taken off-guard. Check out our piece "Are You Prepared" for a look at the current bull market and some thoughts on what could be in store when it turns.


Are You Prepared for  a Significant Drawdown? 










Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.