Debunking Some Bunk: Is September Really That Bad a Month?

Sometimes our industry grabs on to a concept and cannot let it go. Is September the worst month from a performance standpoint? Does it almost always go down? Should one avoid the markets in September? Let’s take a quick look.

Fireside Charts
Unemployment Ticks Down, Business Closures Rise, and Is a New Bubble On the Rise in Stock Valuations?

Unemployment Ticks Down, Business Closures Rise, and Is a New Bubble On the Rise in Stock Valuations?

After climbing slightly through August, new unemployment claims ticked down last week. We’re far from out of the woods though as permanent business closures continue across the country. And as the Fed now intends to keep rates at historic lows through at least 2023, it may be time to move beyond traditional allocation methods like the 60/40 portfolio. Do you have an alternative in place?

Economics and Investing
How Should Investors Think About the Upcoming Election’s Impact on the Stock Market?

How Should Investors Think About the Upcoming Election’s Impact on the Stock Market?

The top question we are being asked from advisors right now: “is there data that can help me anticipate stock market returns in an election year?” While we have outlined some key data worth examining, our takeaway is we would caution against making any significant investment decisions based on these trends.

Economics and Investing
LISTEN: PM Brendan Ryan on ‘Behind the Markets’

LISTEN: PM Brendan Ryan on ‘Behind the Markets’

BCM Portfolio Manager Brendan Ryan, CFA® joined Jeremy Schwartz and Jeremy Siegel of Wharton Business Radio's Behind the Markets podcast to discuss why traditional asset allocation methods are no longer sufficient, emerging short- and long-term market trends, and how to use machine learning to pursue prudent risk taking in an era where it's becoming more necessary than ever.

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Fireside Charts
The Future of Inflation, the Manufacturing Recovery, and the Sinking USD PE at 20-year High, and the Sinking USD

The Future of Inflation, the Manufacturing Recovery, and the Sinking USD PE at 20-year High, and the Sinking USD

The U.S. goods trade deficit surged 11.7% to $79.3 billion in July—the second largest deficit on record—as imports climb back to pre-pandemic levels on recovering consumer demand. Meanwhile, as U.S. equities move to wrap up their best August since the 1980’s today, thanks largely to the tech mega-caps, stocks remain extremely expensive in yet another reminder of 1999. And as the bond market continues to inch back toward “normal,” the sinking USD is giving a boost to commodity prices. Could it ultimately benefit U.S. exports too?

Fireside Charts
U.S. Trade Deficit Approaches Record, Trailing PE at 20-year High, and the Sinking USD

U.S. Trade Deficit Approaches Record, Trailing PE at 20-year High, and the Sinking USD

The U.S. goods trade deficit surged 11.7% to $79.3 billion in July—the second largest deficit on record—as imports climb back to pre-pandemic levels on recovering consumer demand. Meanwhile, as U.S. equities move to wrap up their best August since the 1980’s today, thanks largely to the tech mega-caps, stocks remain extremely expensive in yet another reminder of 1999. And as the bond market continues to inch back toward “normal,” the sinking USD is giving a boost to commodity prices. Could it ultimately benefit U.S. exports too?

Fireside Charts
Durable Goods Orders Jump, and Tech’s Massive Growth & Its Implications on Sector Weightings

Durable Goods Orders Jump, and Tech’s Massive Growth & Its Implications on Sector Weightings

Durable goods orders—excluding transportation—grew for the third month in a row in July after significant contraction during the early days of the Covid-19 crisis, indicating a renewed openness from consumers to long-term capital investments. While much of the overall durable goods spike was thanks to new auto sales, the 2.4% ex-transportation bump is largely attributable to strong home sales as the suburban migration continues in an enduring work-from-home era trend.