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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: Yield Curve Inversion Aftermath, Interest Rate Expectations, and a U.S. Economic Growth Slowdown

We tried to look for charts that would "Lyft" our spirits about the economy this week, but fell slightly short. Hopefully the IPO today won't do the same. First, a look at returns for holding...

Fireside Charts: Consumer Confidence Falters, Exports Ramp Up, A Look at Central Banks Balance Sheets

U.S. consumer confidence has missed estimates for March after a quick rebound in February. A sharp drop in confidence like this could indicate a similarly sharp drop in spending in the upcoming...

Fireside Charts: Sectors’ All-Time Highs, Inverted Yield Curve as LEI, Sharp Downtrend in U.S. Manufacturing PMI

Thursday’s release of the FOMC statement drove markets higher, but that was short-lived. With five of eleven sectors ending the week in the red, the stock market sold off Friday after a yield...

Fireside Charts: A Dovish Fed, the Trade War Trudges On, the U.S. Yield Curve Extends and Deepens

This Friday’s Fireside Charts is one of our favorites in that the charts and data below are forcing us to ask crucial questions about where the market is headed. March Madness indeed! First up,...

The Stock Markets are Ripping Up. The Economy is Slowing. What Could Ultimately Be Wrong?

The 2019 recovery of U.S. and international equity markets continues to claw back at the losses from late 2018. Traditionally, stocks have been a leading economic indicator:  investors look at both

Fireside Charts: Global GDP Growth, Who Funds the US Budget Deficit, Thoughts Ahead of the FED’s Policy Update

Happy First Day of Spring and Fed Day! We hope the vernal equinox brings us sunny outcomes for the markets and the impending FOMC announcement. The number of S&P companies in a “no buyback” period...

Fireside Charts: Communications Sector Breakout, U.S. Manufacturing Reports, and Federal Government Spending vs. Tax Earnings

Will the S&P 500 Communications sector break out from a multi-year channel? An improved trend is much needed! The U.S manufacturing output declined again in February. So far, we are not seeing...

Fireside Charts: Number of U.S. Equities Cut in Half, $9 Trillion of Global Negative Yield, and more on China's Slowdown

 

The number if U.S. listed stocks has been cut approximately in half since the mid 1990's. Negative-yielding global debt is back above $9 trillion. Recession indicators remain higher than last...

Buying the Dips: When Does this Approach Run the Most Risk?

Fidelity, in their 1Q19 Market Update, has suggested that the U.S. is following many other global economic powerhouses into the late stage of the current economic cycle.  

Fireside Charts: Prescription Drug Prices Fall, Fragility of Q1, Global Bond Yields Tumble

Prescription medications saw the biggest year over year decline on record, surpassing the second-largest drop in 1972! Looking at GDP growth between 2010-2018, we can see a correlation between...