Are you wearing rose colored glasses? Take them off and you might see Bifurcated Markets, Tariffs, and Tempered Earnings ExpectationsOctober 9, 2018
“These rose colored glasses
That I'm looking through
Show only the beauty
'Cause they hide all the truth”
-John W Conlee
A Quick History Lesson
In our last post for the 2018: The State of the Bond Markets Part 2 report, we reviewed where the U.S. economy stands as well as quantifying the government's total debt outstanding. The monetary stimulus that has been injected into our economy is larger than anything tried before, and we expressed our concerned that any hint of inflation may cause interest rates to rise rapidly due to this monetary stimulus leftover in the system.
Last week in 2018: The State of the Bond Markets Part 1, we shared our fear for possible ramifications of the Fed's QE (quantitative easing) program that may foreshadow a policy mistake; the Fed will try to raise interest rates too far, too fast. As we delve into Part 2, it is reasonable to review the government's total debt and the overstimulated money supply in this country.
In our 2017 State of the Bond Markets piece, we outlined how the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) bought bonds from the open market in an effort to stimulate the U.S. and Global economies from the recession caused by the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis. Now in 2018, we would like to focus on the possibility that the Fed, and perhaps other central banks, will again make a policy mistake with massive ...
Policy Mistakes and their Economic Consequences: Now the Fed is Tapering QE... What could possibly go wrong?November 9, 2017
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s (Fed) policy mistakes(tightening too far and/or too fast) have had a hand in every recession since WWII. The last time the Fed raised rates in 2004-2006, they increased the