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A Bird's Eye View Blog
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It's Time to Talk About the R-Word

December 14, 2018

As we frequently like to point out, no one knows what will happen to the markets or the economy over the short term. Not tomorrow, next week, next quarter 

Anatomy of a Bear Market

December 6, 2018

What does a typical Bear market look like? How long do they last? When are the majority of the losses incurred? Most investors believe that the losses occur fairly evenly throughout the Bear. Based on the past, with one notable exception, nothing could be further from the truth.

 

Why the Upcoming GICS Sector Shakeup Matters

September 27, 2018

Tomorrow, September 28th, the S&P is making some big changes to the sectors of the S&P 500® Index. These changes will have an impact on the overall market and will also impact how Beaumont Capital Management (BCM) strategies will track the overall market. 

A Final Call Before the Fall

September 20, 2018

We have enjoyed the current bull market which recently surpassed the 1990-2000 technology-led bull as the longest bull ever.

Excuse the rant…this isn’t about politics, it's about economics.

September 10, 2018

Editor's Note: The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the writer and may not be the opinions of Beaumont Capital Management (BCM). 

Does Your Investment Manager Have "Skin in the Game"?

August 30, 2018

When choosing an investment manager, there are various important considerations to make. You’ll want to consider overall objectives, process and performance, what specifically you’ll be investing in, and of course, fees. With so many options for you to choose from, it’s crucial to ensure that your interests directly align with those of your investment manager. What could be more revealing of a manager’s interests and goals than being personally invested in their own funds?

Active Management May Be on the Rise Over Passive: But Active vs Passive is the Wrong Debate

August 23, 2018

Following the 2007-2009 bear market, passive management, specifically index investing, was given the opportunity to thrive. Coming off the lows of a brutal bear market, the S&P 500 and other large cap indices thrived in an environment of easy monetary policy and quantitative easing. Many years of this 9+ year bull market experienced low or extremely low volatility leaving little room for active managers to squeeze out excess returns or alpha. Now, as volatility begins to reintroduce itself, active management may be coming back into favor among ...

Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware)

August 16, 2018

As a Tactical ETF Strategist, we consider ourselves fairly qualified to navigate the exchange traded product (ETP) universe. That being said, there’s one place even we won’t go. To pull a quote directly from our presentation: no margin, leverage, or shorting. We believe that this subset of the ETF universe is far more trouble than it’s worth for investors, experienced and unexperienced alike.

Setting Return Expectations

August 9, 2018

For the past two years I’ve attended the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, known by many as the “Woodstock of Capitalism.” During the 2017 meeting’s question and answer section, a shareholder asked a seemingly simple question: at what rate can Berkshire Hathaway compound its book value per share over the long term? For those who are unaware, Warren Buffett has long maintained that this measure, growth in book value per share, will equate to the stock’s long term performance. The old sage took a second to think and then ...

Déjà Vu: Will this Rate Hike Cycle Cause the next Major Market Decline?

August 2, 2018

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (FED) has a rather unenviable record and an even more difficult job. Since WWII, they have raised interest rates 18 times.¹ As the chart below shows, the stock market and the economy have reacted badly each time. Does anyone really think that this time will be different?