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Fireside Charts: Good News for the U.S. Farmer, Coronavirus Affects Markets, and Pleasant (and Surprising) Manufacturing News

January 24, 2020

While we've seen some promising signs on economic activity (and even ...

Fireside Charts: 2020 Projections, a Review of the Decade, and What's Captured Investor Interest?

January 22, 2020

As we settle into the second week of earnings season, let's take a look at what the analysts see coming in the next year. 4Q19 ...

Fireside Charts: Another Record For the S&P 500 and Some Overdue Good News on Manufacturing

January 17, 2020

The S&P 500 sailed through the 3,300 mark for the first time yesterday to clinch yet another record, thanks in large part to ...

Fireside Charts: The S&P 500 Revisits the '90s, How Last 3 Bull Markets Compare, and a Look at Inflation

January 15, 2020

The S&P 500 hit 22 new all-time closing highs in 2019 and just continued its record ...

Fireside Charts: EPS Projections Unchanged, Nasdaq Composite Chases S&P 500, Junk Bond Yields Disappoint

January 13, 2020

Earnings season kicks off this week and analysts' expected EPS growth in the MSCI USA index is currently at 10%+ through 2021. Strong growth from tech firms is also helping boost the Nasdaq Composite Index, which just saw its market value climb to over half of that of the S&P 500. Over in the bond market, 10-year U.S. Treasury (UST) yields look to be revisiting patterns from 2012 and 2016; could they be poised to rise after hovering near historic lows for much of the last year? Finally, it's ...

Fireside Charts: 2020 Equity Expectations Soar, U.S. Corporate Bonds Set Record Low, Update on USD/CNY

January 10, 2020

What are your hopes and expectations for 2020? Corporate earnings markets are certainly feeling optimistic, as demonstrated by the historic highs of the forward P/E ratio, but earnings season will have to deliver if we hope to keep the good times rolling. Meanwhile, the bond market looks to already be experiencing some hardship, with the Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond (BBCB) Index yield-to-duration ratio kicking off 2020 by sinking to a record low. How do your clients feel about taking on greater ...

Fireside Charts: $1 Trillion Returned to U.S. After Tax Cuts, Buybacks Set Record, and USD Breaks Through Support

January 8, 2020

U.S. companies have repatriated more than $1 trillion from foreign subsidiaries to their U.S. parents since 2017—more specifically, since the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Unemployment has since seen record lows and consumer spending remains strong, despite ongoing weakness in manufacturing and trade. But companies quickly

Fireside Charts: Small vs. Large Caps, Energy Prices Surge, and Manufacturing Sees Worst Activity in a Decade

January 6, 2020

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high on Thursday and while the S&P 600 has risen over 460% since its financial-crisis lows, it—like many other markets—has yet to recapture its summer '18 magic and continues to trade below previous peaks. In comparison, its large-cap counterpart—the S&P 500—has continued setting records into 2020, leaving many wondering... could it be overheated? Mounting tensions in the Middle East could have something to say about the matter; brent crude futures ...

Fireside Charts: A New Performance Landmark, P/E Multiple Expansion to Thank for Record 2019, and Crude Oil Spikes After U.S. Airstrike

January 3, 2020

Happy Friday, and welcome to the first Fireside Charts of the new decade! We're kicking off 2020 with a look at what made 2019 unique—for the first time ever, all major asset classes outperformed their historical averages. Also, after being a major drag on performance in 2018, multiple expansion accounted for nearly all (over 80%!) of the S&P 500's total return. Q3 earnings reports were full of pleasant surprises, but will it be enough to back up the higher P/E ratios in Q4 or was it simply a case of a low bar benefiting everyone? ...

Fireside Charts: Bearish Puts Rise, CAPE Ratio Mirrors '29 & '00, and a Look at 'Dr. Copper'

December 20, 2019

Happy Friday, Fireside Charts readers, and welcome to our final post of 2019! The S&P 500 hit yet another all-time high yesterday following additional positive trade war news out of Washington, but we're still seeing some mixed signals on market and economic health. Investors look to be bracing for a market turn and have been increasingly gathering expensive put options in a search for downside protection. And they could be on the right track as the CAPE ratio—a cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio that indicates if the market is over or undervalued—just ...