• Login
  • Register
A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: The Trade War Continues, Bond Market Strength Holds, and the Possibility of a Recession in Nine Months

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Jun03, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

Will you be watching Jeopardy tonight? James Holzhauer is less than $59,000 from breaking the 2004 record for most money won on the show. Meanwhile, the trade war rages on, leaving a wake of job cuts in its path. Next, will 10 Year U.S. Treasury Yields soon reach the lows of 2012 and 2016? The bond market is holding on to its strength while the FED takes advantage of prices by selling nearly $9 billion of its assets. Lastly, a look at where we are in the business cycle— Morgan Stanley says a recession could be coming in as little as three months. 

 

1. We pay for the trade war in more ways than one...

 

6.3 Chart 8

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/3/19

 

 

2. With all the volatility of the last year, where are we?

 

6.3 Chart 1

 Source: thechartstore.com, as of 6/3/19

    

  

3. UST yields backed up significantly last week...

 

 6.3 Chart 2

Source: thechartstore.com, as of 6/3/19

 

 

4. Will we see yields revisit the 2012 and 2016 lows?

 

 6.3 Chart 3

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/3/19

   

 

5. Junk bond yields are rising...

 

 6.3 Chart 4

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/3/19

   

 

6. The FED is taking advantage of the bond market strength and continues to sell bonds at a robust pace....

 6.3 Chart 5

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/3/19

 

 

7. Two good FED reports, two poor, and two basically neutral...

 

 6-3 Chart 7

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/2/19

   

 

8. One opinion about where we are in the business cycle:

 6.3 Chart 6

 Source: WSJ Daily Shot, as of 6/3/19

 

 

 

When are you able to realize good investment returns? Volatility doesn’t give us an answer on future returns or predict good versus bad days, but BCM believes there is a better way to manage volatility in pursuit of successful long-term investing. Read “Our Take on Volatility” on the BCM Blog by Assistant Portfolio Manager Denis Rezendes, CFA

 

Our Take on Volatility: When You Are More Likely   to Realize Good Investment Outcomes

 

 

Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.