Real Rates, Crack Spreads, Unemployment
Interest rates hit new highs mid-week, bringing the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield back to its long-term average for the first time since 2007. Interest rates are now well in excess of trailing inflation...
Fed Forward Guidance, Earnings Estimates, Government Shutdowns
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left short-term interest rates unchanged, but their forward guidance spooked the markets. The committee also updated their economic projections to reflect the...
Consumer Prices, Oil, the Magnificent Seven
Rising energy prices pushed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to its largest monthly change in over a year but, below the surface, the increase in core CPI remained subdued. The price of oil is now at...
Recession Signals, Construction Demand, Inflation Progress
Signs of labor market weakness, which have historically signaled a recession, are beginning to appear. The construction sector, which was hit hard in recent recessions, seems set up for strong demand...
Will Restarting Student Loan Repayments Dampen Consumer Spending?
On June 3rd, President Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 into law suspending the debt ceiling until 2025 and averting a potential U.S. default. One provision of the law will require student loan...
AI Mania, Emergency Lending, Leading Economic Indicators
AI mania is sweeping the stock market, propelling broad indices to near-term highs as breadth continues to narrow. While the banking crisis is over for now, the problems that sparked it haven’t gone...