What’s Going On With Consumers, When Will Bonds Behave Like Bonds, Don’t Bet Against Innovation
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure...
Tax Loss Selling: Don’t Conflate Short-term Price Moves with Fundamentals
Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the...
A New Year for Consumers, Restrictive Financial Conditions, the End of an Era
Real disposable incomes are on the rise again to start the new year as inflation continues to moderate. Unseasonably warm weather across the United States has caused front month natural gas prices...
The Federal Reserve Remains Hawkish, Inflation Is Slowing, China’s Shifting Covid Policies
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) surprised markets by releasing economic and rate hike forecasts that are out of line with current consensus. The committee seems convinced that unemployment...
The U.S. Economy Has a Dearth of Workers, Services Spending Remains Strong, the Holidays Are Fast Approaching
The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress...
COVID Restrictions Remain Widespread in China, Earnings Revisions Aren’t Hitting All Sectors Equally, Black Friday Recap
Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks...