The U.S. dollar is inching higher, but this trend tends to have a negative impact on manufacturing, stock performance, and emerging markets. Have you ever wondered how the market performed in the months prior to a recession? Next, we share a nice visual summary of the proportion of U.S. imported goods impacted by existing/potential tariffs. Agriculture has been among the U.S. economic sectors hit hardest by the yearlong trade conflict with China. See which kind of farmers they have hit the most. The Bank of Japan now owns over three-quarters of its nation's ...

Starting today, Mexico and Canada have begun the process to lift the retaliatory tariffs they had imposed on several American goods, including agricultural products. Yet, as of the end of April, our 12-month trailing trade deficit amounted to -$0.9244 trillion and little to no progress has been made with our nation's trade war with China as net U.S. Treasury purchases post largest negative since 2016. Conversely, across the East China Sea, the perceived "safe haven" status of Japan is showing up in their latest GDP figures. In other news, the ...

Legend has it, on this day in 1792, 24 merchants and stockbrokers started the New York Stock Exchange under a Buttonwood tree at 68 Wall Street, marking its 217th year. The first security to be listed? Bank of New York Melon, which now sits at #136 in the S&P 500^® Index in terms of market cap. 

In other news: while the S&P 500 has mostly rebounded since Monday, the bond markets might be telling a different story. Ned Davis proves that stock buybacks provide a boost to the S&P 500, a 19% ...

The S&P 500 companies with the most exposure to China are getting hurt, as seen in their Q1 earnings. Fannie and Freddie are piling on high-leverage mortgages. What did we learn in the last recession is regards to high-leverage mortgages? How will inflation look if there is a further escalation in the US-China trade war? Next, the renminibi's decline illustrates how a nation can lose control in a trade war environment. Germany's GDP rebounded in the first quarter. Bitcoin is... back? It is now over ...

The yield curve model puts the chance of a recession between 25-33%. It is now at its highest since 2008. Only the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have reached new highs in 2019...every other major U.S. average index has yet to do so. In an update on the trade balance, the total for March was -$50 billion up from February. The CPI report showed us that consumer inflation remains near the Fed's 2% target. How have the tariff increases impacted inflation in the US thus far? They have made an impact, and most clearly in PCE. 

Today's blog post begins with a wedge being formed between the S&P 500's 50 and 200 moving day averages. Is this cause for concern? According to some data, leading indicators have improved, except for copper, which has held well up until recently. We have written about our concern for the crippling debt in our country. Nobody wants to buy the 10-year note. Will this week's trade dispute derail this momentum? Lastly, which nations are running twin deficits?

We can only hope the latest round of tariffs is a negotiation tactic from Trump. The new tariffs under consideration will have a much larger drag on growth, and they will come into effect in two days. U.S. farmers don't expect the soybean trade dispute with China to be resolved by July. Meanwhile, company defaults in China are headed towards a record high in 2019. How have earnings per share forecasts performed one month into each quarter? Energy has been under-performing crude oil over the past couple of years. Finally, ...

How many hours of work are needed to buy the S&P 500? As of the most recent data, 126.37 hours at 23.31/hr is needed. What about compared to the amount of working hours to buy gold, or buy a barrel of oil? Next, the dollar continues to crush its growing trend. Corporate guidance is still worsening as U.S. CEOs have skeptical outlooks despite near-record earnings. This skepticism will not let up if U.S.-China trade fears still exist. ...

TGIF! U.S. labor productivity jumped last quarter, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Yesterday, rates and currency markets continued to adjust to the latest from the Federal Reserve. FED officials on Wednesday voted to hold steady to their benchmark federal-funds rate in a range between 2.25% and ...

Consumer inflation has been slowing. The Dallas FED manufacturing index signaled slower expansion in Texas-area factory activity. The Chicago FED also missed its mark in its latest report, amaking it even more clear that manufacturing is not the driving force behind our Q1 GDP. Consumer spending exploded in March, greatly beating out forecasts. Will the U.S. consumer be our saving grace? After steadily rising for the past two years, home ownership rates dropped in the first ...