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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts 12.17.18

We start today's blog post with PMI indicators for US services and manufacturing for December. There is certainly some moderation (from the recent highs) in business activity. The U.S. dollar has...

Fireside Charts 12.14.18

Across the globe, corporate revenues have declined in the last few weeks. This is not positive news, considering almost half of the S&P 500 Index® revenue comes from overseas. Recent GDP revisions...

It's Time to Talk About the R-Word

As we frequently like to point out, no one knows what will happen to the markets or the economy over the short term. Not tomorrow, next week, next quarter or even next year. But we do need to face...

Fireside Charts 12.12.18

Today's Fireside Chart's includes updates on Germany's GDP and bond yields; the U.S. yield curve, the inversion and the increasing statistical probability of a recession; a snapshot of recent...

Fireside Charts 12.10.18

With the holiday season upon us, will a boost in retail sales help improve S&P 500 performance? The DOW Transportation Average is giving off bearish signals. Oil has cascaded down over 40% in last...

Fireside Charts 12.7.18

We kick off our Friday chart blog with a look at the historical correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions. What does this mean for the U.S. economy, whose PMI remains strong...

Anatomy of a Bear Market

What does a typical Bear market look like? How long do they last? When are the majority of the losses incurred? Most investors believe that the losses occur fairly evenly throughout the Bear....

Fireside Charts 12.5.18

The markets are closed today in honor of the passing of President George H.W. Bush. We remember his legacy and service on this national day of mourning. On Monday, the yield curve inverted...

Fireside Charts 12.3.18

The leading economic indicator for Europe shows the scale of the significant drawdowns that have preceded recessions. The decline in Europe's trade surplus has been the sharpest in...

Fireside Charts 11.30.18

We begin the blog today with some good news for Japan. However, expectations point to further weakness in the Japanese manufacturing sector. In the United States, corporate America is bringing...