Leading Indicators Turn Negative, Declining Inflation Expectations, and a 12-Week Dow Record
Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently...
The 2-Year and Fed Funds Rate, Small Businesses’ Pessimism and Hiring Plans and Investor Sentiment as an Indicator
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC...
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal...
Inflation as a Recession Indicator, Increased Consumer Spending, and Semiconductor Imports Above Recent Highs
China’s economy is beginning to re-open. While this is a positive development for the global economy, it may lead to increased oil demand at a time when supply is already tight. Historically, periods of high...
Market Predicts Inflation Slowdown, Wage Growth Means Increased Tax Receipts, and Consumer Demand Stays Strong
Nasdaq 100 breadth has fallen to levels only seen near the bottom of recent drawdowns. Inflation remains front and center, but market-based measures have fallen over the past month. Falling inflation...
Inflation’s Relationship with Equities, Bearish Investors, Beaten Down Sector Present Opportunity
Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back...