Fed narratives continue to spook markets
Jerome Powell’s tone during Wednesday’s press conference has market participants considered the Fed is determined to break the economy in order to get inflation under control. However, many forward leading inflation indicators...
Inflation report roils markets, housing activity continues to be weak, Norway offers a glimpse into the EV future.
Last Tuesday’s CPI reading of +.1% month over month sent shockwaves through the market as forecasters hoped for a -.1% decrease month over month buoyed by big declines in oil prices.
The Great Return to work?, Inflation looks to be headed lower and Global business cycles continue to diverge
Most data is pointing towards improving supply constraints in both physical goods and the labor market, likely implying declining inflation in the near-term. Russia has shut down the NordStream pipeline further exacerbating Europe’s energy...
Global PMI Contracts, First “Full Employment” Recession, and the Mortgage Rate and 10-year UST Spread
The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite...
Recession is now Consensus, Housing Inventory Rising, and the Return of Yield
A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to...
Market Signaling a Curb in Inflation Fears, Tech Companies are “Right Sizing”, The Supply/Demand “Bullwhip”
The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the...