FIRESIDE CHARTS
Global PMI Contracts, First “Full Employment” Recession, and the Mortgage Rate and 10-year UST Spread
The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite…
Recession is now Consensus, Housing Inventory Rising, and the Return of Yield
A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to…
Market Signaling a Curb in Inflation Fears, Tech Companies are “Right Sizing”, The Supply/Demand “Bullwhip”
The U.S. Dollar is surging to new 20-year highs. Market measures of long-term inflation expectations continue to fall, driven in part by falling energy and agriculture prices. Gas prices are driven by the…
VIDEO: BCM’s 2Q22 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM-Looking Ahead to a (Hopefully) Brighter Future
This has been one of the most difficult investment environments with simultaneous declines in bond and stocks, and a number of external shocks. However, the odds are in the favor of investors. Click below to…
BCM 2Q22 Market Commentary: Capturing Opportunities in an Otherwise Painful Market Environment
The first half of 2022 has been one of the most difficult investment environments in the past 40 years due to the simultaneous decline of bonds with stocks, and an unprecedented mix of external shocks…
Fixed Income Fails to Mitigate Downside Risk, Sentiment and Unemployment Decouple, and Rate Hikes Are Priced In
As the second quarter comes to an end, it’s been an incredible difficult year especially for investors with traditionally conservative allocations. Low unemployment has historically corresponded to strong…
Nowhere to Hide
2022 has been a difficult and frustrating year for many asset managers, ourselves included. The S&P 500 recently entered a bear market, falling 20% from its most recent peak. While this is far from uncharted…
Leading Indicators Turn Negative, Declining Inflation Expectations, and a 12-Week Dow Record
Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently…
The 2-Year and Fed Funds Rate, Small Businesses’ Pessimism and Hiring Plans and Investor Sentiment as an Indicator
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC…
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal…