FIRESIDE CHARTS
Satiating Consumer Spending, Housing and Rent Inflation, and the “Magnificent 8”
Consumer spending, the pandemic and inflation. What will consumers do? The US dollar rally may help curb imported inflation of goods, but our own housing and rent inflation will overwhelm this beneficial …
Surging Inflation, Early Signs of Stabilization in China, and Growing Evidence of a Market Top
Perhaps we’ve rediscovered why there is a worker shortage. Inflation, stagflation, and more inflation. This does not look “transitory” and the rates of inflation may shock you. What can cash inflows…
Inflation Shoots to Multi-Decade Highs, Market Froth Accumulates, and Checking In on China’s Debt Crisis
The various gauges of inflation are confirming what we already see at the pump, at stores and online—prices are going up and there is little sign they will abate anytime soon. Producer inflation is…
A Busy Fed, a 20+ Year Record for the S&P 500, and Bracing for Further Supply Chain Pressures
November will be a big month for Federal Reserve developments, with more actionable talk of rate hikes and plans to start tapering asset purchases before the end of the month. With a balance sheet…
Services PMI Hits New Record High, Equities Notch a Few New Records of Their Own, and the Chinese Debt Crisis Continues
Early in the pandemic, we talked a lot about how the services recovery was a little slow out of the gate when compared to manufacturing. Momentum is accelerating though, and October saw the ISM…
Good Help Grows Ever Harder to Find, Consumer Confidence Deteriorates, and a Stagflation Check In
Good help is growing hard to find—and afford—in the U.S. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) posted its largest gain on record last quarter, driven primarily by wage increases on the lower end of the pay…
Prices Continue to Climb, Yield Curves Flatten, and the Energy Crisis Deepens
After a dip into contraction in September, manufacturing in Richmond has realigned with the national average to settle in “slow-growth” mode. Prices also followed a similar pattern to the national…
Price Pressures at Extremes, a Lynchpin Earnings Week, and the $2.77 Trillion U.S. Deficit
The Markit Manufacturing PMI came in slightly below expectations in October at 59.2, easing a bit from September’s high but still demonstrating robust growth. Price pressures, both input and output…
Record Wealth Creation, Consumption Trends and Disconnects, and Accelerating Buybacks Drive Equity Gains
It’s no secret that a staggering amount of wealth was created during the pandemic and the M2 money supply has hit record highs (in what may be a precursor to some painful times ahead…). However…
Industrial Production Surprises to the Downside, Slowing GDP Growth Here and Abroad, and a Look at Sector Dispersion
U.S. industrial production declined in September and has slipped below its pre-pandemic level, pushing the nation back into slow-growth mode and—when paired with sinking GDP projections—reigniting…