FIRESIDE CHARTS
Giving Back Post Covid Gains, CPI Expectations, and the Relationship Between Manufacturing and Interest Rates
Is the current market environment abnormal, or simply returning to normal? Valuations for a large portion of the U.S. equity markets are now at or below their pre-Covid levels. Retail traders have given back…
Series I Savings Bonds: An Obscure Opportunity for a High Inflation World
With inflation soaring to 8.5% in the most recent CPI report, some attention has been garnered to a relatively obscure government-backed investment known as iBonds or Series I Savings Bonds. These bonds…
A Rare Phenomenon in Stocks and Bonds, Mortgage Rates Still Rising, China’s Lockdown is Taking Its Toll
The widely awaited FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) meeting has come and gone. The FOMC raised the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points (0.50%) and announced plans to reducing the Federal Reserve’s…
The End of the “Meme” Investors?
GameStop is the largest video game retailer worldwide. At its 4,816 stores, customers can purchase new or used video games, gaming consoles and accessories or trade in their old items for cash or credit…
Investor and Consumer Sentiment Decline, Homebuyers Priced Out, and USD Benefits from Current Environment
Small option traders, the favored vehicle of many “meme” investors, are becoming less bullish as investor sentiment continues to worsen. Consumer sentiment continues to fall as well, despite confidence in…
The Draw of Higher Interest Rates, China’s Lockdowns and Effects on Supply Chain, Pandemic Era Fiscal Policy’s Impact on GDP
Investor sentiment is reaching dire levels. The U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield is in positive territory for the first time since 2019, as higher interest rates bolster the…
BCM 1Q22 Market Commentary: Investors Question the Role of Fixed Income but It Hasn’t Changed
As we reflect on another quarter, it’s astounding how rapidly the prevailing narrative changes. Last quarter we were cautiously optimistic that Omicron would push the world towards a “living with Covid” reality…
Yield Curve Inversion, Market’s Expectations of Federal Funds Rate, and Inflation’s Effect on Discretionary Spending
The long end of the yield curve just inverted for the first time since 2006. The flattening yield curve reflects the market’s expectations of future Federal Reserve tightening and its impact on the economy…
Bond Markets React to FOMC, Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Surge, Emerging Market Index Has Changed
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members are telegraphing an increasingly hawkish approach to monetary policy in the near future, and the bond markets have reacted accordingly. Mortgage rates have risen…
Uncertainty Leads to Hiring Stalls, Data Suggests Late Cycle Slowdown, and the Yield Curve Inverts
Meme stocks are back. The labor market remains strong, but fewer firms are planning to hire in the future. Where are we in the business cycle? The data points to a late cycle slowdown, which has historically…