FIRESIDE CHARTS
Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term…
Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…
3Q24 Commentary: As the Fed Provides a Clearer Fiscal Policy Roadmap, Our Models Signal for Less Risk
Q3 2024 saw a broad rally driven by small-cap, value stocks, and international markets as central banks cut rates. Looking ahead, caution is shifting focus to selective opportunities in sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials.
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth
The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…
Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty
Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator…
How to Allocate Based on Possible Fed Decision
How can you position your portfolios in preparation for the possible outcomes of the upcoming Fed Decision? There seems to be consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) will pursue one of three leading options…
Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies
The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but…
Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia…