FIRESIDE CHARTS
“No Decision” from Fed, Commodities Still on the Rise, and Will China’s Crackdowns Affect U.S. Credit?
After Wednesday’s Fed meeting, Fed Chairman Powell says the U.S. economy is still a good deal away from making “substantial further progress”. Investors are waiting for a characterization of the…
Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist, New Home Sales Miss Expectations, and Europe’s Yield Curve Moves into the Negative
Although this past year has been about getting back to normal, history shows that this uninterrupted bull market still stands out as tech mega-caps come storming back. New home sales missed…
VIDEO: BCM’s 2Q21 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM
Economic “normalization” continued as the effects of the reopenings were seen in Q2. The U.S. is growing faster than most other developed nations, at higher than expected rates prior to Covid, but is this just a reopening upswing that will fizzle out?
Delta Variant Threatens More Reopenings, Junk Bond Yields Remain Low, and Tech Crack Downs Threaten Chinese Market
The Delta variant could put a wrench in “normalization” as many businesses plan to return to their office this fall with ~100 million eligible people still not vaccinated. But the flash Markit PMI…
Home Sales Still Soaring, Raised Earning Guidance Buoys Markets, and Supply Chain Problems Continue to Affect Commodities
Home sales hit a multi-year high in June but are still below expectations as inventories remain extremely low for this time of year. Will the Case-Shiller Home Price Index exceed 25% and will…
NBER Marks Recession at 2 Months, Hiring Struggles Continue, and Covid Factor Might Affect 10-Year Yield Recovery
The National Bureau of Economic Research’s decision to set the COVID recession at two months was surprising since more than a year and half later, “normalization” is ongoing. And although longer…
Transitory Inflation Called into Question, Bond Market Could Be Harbinger, and China’s Debt Bubble
More inflation data continues to roll in both here and abroad, and there is no sign yet of it backing off despite Fed Chairman Powell’s claims. Looking at the debt situation (which includes CPI…
Powell’s Words Calm Markets, Manufacturing Surveys are Mixed, and Covid Cases are on the Rise Across the Globe
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke before a House panel yesterday where he noted the increase in inflation but remains confident that it will back off as the economy returns to normal. It seems his…
Inflation Mirroring History, Fed May be Forced to Act, and Equities Stand Strong…For Now
The CPI is now well above the pre-Covid trend, leading the Boomer generation to draw parallels to the 1970’s. Yet, barring extreme competition or a collapse, the Fed continues its transitory thinking…
BCM 2Q21 Market Commentary: A Game of Tug of War—Demand-Driven Economics May Lead to a New Economic Regime
In the first quarter we reflected on the amazing dichotomy between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021, and yet, despite the rapid changes we have seen in the past 18 months, we might dare refer to Q2 2021 as…