FIRESIDE CHARTS

Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels

Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels

The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase…

China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth

China Stimulus, Financial Conditions, Earnings Growth

The Chinese government announced a slew of stimulus measures to prop up the economy over the past week. These announcements sent investors—who had largely abandoned China—rushing back to buy stocks. Looser financial conditions in the U.S. may…

Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty

Rate Cuts, Mid Caps, Rising Uncertainty

Like most investors, we’re eagerly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) decision on interest rates. Frankly, it can’t come soon enough — we’re all tired of the endless debate over 25 vs. 50 basis points. I know it’s not Friday but I wanted…

What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?

What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?

The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator…

How to Allocate Based on Possible Fed Decision

How to Allocate Based on Possible Fed Decision

How can you position your portfolios in preparation for the possible outcomes of the upcoming Fed Decision? There seems to be consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) will pursue one of three leading options…

Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies

Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies

The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but…

Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History

Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History

How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia…

Data Revisions, Gold, to the Moon

Data Revisions, Gold, to the Moon

The Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market as continued economic strength comes into question. Recent revisions have shown that job growth over the past year was not as…