Holiday Travel, Santa Claus Rally, Government Efficiency
The holiday season is in full swing, and Americans are on the move. Thanksgiving set a record for TSA traveler throughput. A “Santa Claus” rally is also well underway, sending prices for risk assets...
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia...
Volmageddon, Rebounding Markets, AI Investment
Volmageddon isn’t what it used to be. Perhaps increased interest in the index has made the VIX an example of Goodhart’s Law—when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Equities...
Bank of Japan, the Sahm Rule, Earnings Season
On Sunday night the Bank of Japan (BOJ) unexpectedly raised interest rates, adding fuel to the fire in already skittish equity markets. Investors were on edge after the prior week’s payroll report...
Growth to Value: From One Extreme to Another
After a decade of tech dominance, we're seeing a major rotation in the market. Large-cap growth stocks, led by giants like Microsoft, have recently been overshadowed as money flows into small-cap value stocks. Over just two weeks following the...