Economic Surprises, Business Investment, Bitcoin
Recent economic data has been stronger than expected, sending intermediate and long-term interest rates higher. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the third quarter remained strong, driven by consumer spending. Business spending remains...
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia...
Inflation Expectations, Bankruptcy Filings, Occupation Structure
U.S. markets are pricing in an uptick in inflation, which has many knock-on effects throughout the economy. Mortgage rates are back above 7%, likely spoiling any nascent momentum in the housing market. Small-cap stocks have taken a hit...
Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term...
Strong Returns, “Show Me” Phase, Fallen Angels
The S&P 500 is on pace for a historically strong return this year but will need to navigate one more earnings season unscathed. U.S. stock-bond correlations are back in negative territory. Chinese stock markets have entered the “show me” phase...