Retail Sales, Household Debt, Institutional Investors
The U.S. consumer is in a league of its own. The recent retail sales report came in higher than expected and alternative data suggests that the strong growth may continue. Household liabilities are on the rise, is this a sign of near-term...
With the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates, what is the outlook for future mortgage rates?
Why are mortgage rates still stubbornly high despite the Fed easing rates? Understand the potential trajectory of future mortgage rates and explore key factors like housing demand, mortgage rate spreads, and market trends impacting rate movements.
Today’s AI Investment Boom in the Context of History
How short-term bubbles can lead to revolutionary innovation and in turn, long-term economic growth. We anticipate the AI investment boom to follow the same patterns we’ve seen throughout history. Last Thursday, Nvidia...
What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?
The longest continuous yield curve inversion has finally come to an end. Or has it? The answer depends on how you measure it. That’s just one of my gripes with the yield curve inversion as an economic indicator...
How to Allocate Based on Possible Fed Decision
How can you position your portfolios in preparation for the possible outcomes of the upcoming Fed Decision? There seems to be consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee (the Fed) will pursue one of three leading options...
Interest Rate Policy, Job Creation, Office Vacancies
The Federal Reserve’s highly restrictive interest rate policy is taking its toll, as interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy are rolling over. The pace of job creation continues to slow but...