Global PMI Contracts, First “Full Employment” Recession, and the Mortgage Rate and 10-year UST Spread
The slowdown in economic data continues. Aggregate unemployment has remained largely unscathed, but employees are beginning to worry about labor markets. S&P 500 forward earnings estimates are falling despite...
Recession is now Consensus, Housing Inventory Rising, and the Return of Yield
A likely recession is now consensus among fund managers. Few managers are taking on risk in this environment, and many are hedged for further downside. Housing inventory is on the rise, but prices have yet to...
VIDEO: BCM’s 2Q22 Quarterly Market Update Call with the PM-Looking Ahead to a (Hopefully) Brighter Future
This has been one of the most difficult investment environments with simultaneous declines in bond and stocks, and a number of external shocks. However, the odds are in the favor of investors. Click below to...
Leading Indicators Turn Negative, Declining Inflation Expectations, and a 12-Week Dow Record
Leading economic indicators are starting to turn negative, as the market prices in a lower peak to the current Federal Reserve hiking cycle. Long-term market-based inflation expectations have fallen recently...
The 2-Year and Fed Funds Rate, Small Businesses’ Pessimism and Hiring Plans and Investor Sentiment as an Indicator
The Federal Reserve raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75% on Wednesday, further accelerating an already aggressive tightening cycle. Financial conditions have already tightened significantly and the FOMC...
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal...