A Modern-Day Bank Run, a Tale of Two Economies, Federal Reserve Credibility
Silicon Valley Bank’s announcement that it was raising capital on Wednesday caused a crisis of confidence leading to a traditional bank run. Consumers and companies are adding debt. New orders are...
Economic Data Remains Strong, Inflation Is in Focus, Stock Buybacks Resume
Economic data is showing no signs of weakness so far in 2023. If the economy remains strong, or even accelerates, then the Federal Reserve may have a harder time bringing inflation back to target...
Jobs Report Shattered Expectations, Optimism Is Rising, Oil Supply Is Improving
Consumers are becoming more upbeat, at odds with disappointing retail sales in December. More companies are mentioning job cuts on earnings calls. Slack in the labor market will put downward pressure...
The U.S. Economy Has a Dearth of Workers, Services Spending Remains Strong, the Holidays Are Fast Approaching
The Federal reserve wants to loosen the labor market, but the labor market isn’t tight because interest rates are too low. Despite higher interest rates and a cooling economy there’s been little stress...
COVID Restrictions Remain Widespread in China, Earnings Revisions Aren’t Hitting All Sectors Equally, Black Friday Recap
Covid restrictions remain widespread in China, now impacting nearly 60% of economic output. Increasing covid restrictions have coincided with falling oil prices. Earnings estimates for large U.S. stocks...
The Upcoming Holiday Season Will Test Consumers, Retailers Are Reluctant to Raise Prices, Dividends Are in Demand
The economy is still growing, but it seems clear that it’s no longer overheating. Consumers are continuing to spend into the holiday season. Views on the labor market are souring. Retail pricing power...