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A Bird's Eye View Blog

Fireside Charts: The Interim Trade Deal, ISM Manufacturing Data, and What Past Correlations Could Indicate for 2020

By:BCM Investment Team | Date:Dec18, 2019 | Category: Equity, Economics, Market Highlights, Fireside Charts

While the markets have so far reacted positively to news of a phase one trade deal with China, a closer look at the details reveals some potential issues—particularly when it comes to the volume of agricultural exports. Meanwhile, FedEx shares were down ~7% in pre-market trading this morning following a 40% year-over-year drop in profits for fiscal Q2 and a surprising correlation between the company's performance and U.S. ISM Composite PMI is making us wonder what might be in store for the broader U.S. economy in 2020. Looking over to Europe, Germany's manufacturing woes continue as this month's manufacturing PMI reading again fell short of expectations, and the weakness isn't stopping at the boarder; December marks the 11th straight month of contraction for Eurozone manufacturing PMI. But has that weakness in manufacturing weighed on Eurozone trade balance? 


On a separate note, Fireside Charts will be taking some time off next week to enjoy the holidays. We'll share our final blog of 2019 on Friday and then see you back in your inbox on 1/3/2020!



1. Are parts of the interim trade deal with China "hollow" or unlikely to be accomplished?


phase one deal exports

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/17/19



2. How do you see these measures reestablishing correlation? 


factory output and ism production index correlation

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/18/19



3. Speaking of correlation... should FedEx's recent earnings miss and revised guidance be making us nervous for the broader economy?


fedex stock performance pmi correlation

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/18/19



4. While the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI saw little change, Germany can't catch a break...


markit/bme germany manufacturing pmi

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/17/19



5. ...And Germany is pulling much of the rest of Europe with it...


markit eurozone manufacturing pmi

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/17/19



6. But Eurozone trade surplus is on the rise and came in above expectations!


eurozone trade balance

Source: WSJ Daily Shot, from 12/18/19





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Disclosure: The charts and info-graphics contained in this blog are typically based on data obtained from 3rd parties and are believed to be accurate. The commentary included is the opinion of the author and subject to change at any time. Any reference to specific securities or investments are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as investment advice nor are a recommendation to take any action. Individual securities mentioned may be held in client accounts.