ECONOMICS & INVESTING
Inflation Jitters: A Deeper Look
Have Inflation concerns returned? We’ve long been prepared to move on from the over analysis of monthly inflation data, confident the majority of inflation would prove transitory, leaving investors to focus on economic growth…
Investors Need Not Fear the Traditional Diversified Portfolio – A Historical Perspective
For much of 2023, investors were leery of holding traditional risk assets given the attractive prospects of riskless cash yielding over 5%, and the poor trailing performance of nearly all cash-flowing assets. While the recent decline in rates…
The “Long and Lagged” effects of Interest Rates: Corporate Interest Rate “Lock-in”
For the past few quarters, our positive firm view on the homebuilding sector has been in large part due to the idea of “interest rate lock-in” for existing homebuyers. Put simply, homeowner’s existing mortgages…
Will Restarting Student Loan Repayments Dampen Consumer Spending?
On June 3rd, President Biden signed the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 into law suspending the debt ceiling until 2025 and averting a potential U.S. default. One provision of the law will require student loan…
Debt Ceiling Redux: What Lessons Can Market Participants Learn From 2011?
In 2011, the United States was rapidly approaching its debt ceiling—the legislative cap on the total amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur to finance its operations. The debt ceiling at that time was…
Bank Casualties: A Result of the Steepest Rate Hikes in Modern History
In the wake of the March 10th demise of Silicon Valley Bank, banks have been thrust into the center of the latest economic crises. More specifically, banks with a large number of uninsured deposits (those over…
Tax Loss Selling: Don’t Conflate Short-term Price Moves with Fundamentals
Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…
Staggering Losses at Early-Stage Companies Exemplify Recent Sentiment Shift in Markets
Whether it be the explosion of cryptocurrencies, a renewed fervor for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) , Electric Vehicle companies (many of which sought SPAC IPOs), or the dawn of the…
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the Curve?
The Federal funds rate is currently targeted between 0.75 to 1.00%, with an additional 50 to 75 basis points on the table this week. The two-year treasury yield has been 40 basis points above the Federal…
Has the Market Been as Choppy this Year as it Feels?
It has been feeling all year as if the market is on a teeter totter. One day euphoria, the next day fear. I analyzed daily S&P 500® Index returns to see if there had been more pairs of big up and down index…