FIRESIDE CHARTS
Positive Earnings Revisions at a 20-year High, 2009 Deja Vu, and a Look at Global Trade
The manufacturing recovery continued in June with a solid rebound in Dallas, but momentum may be difficult to sustain through Texas’s surge in COVID-19 cases and reopening. And after hitting its lowest levels in nearly 40 years, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer—considered a leading indicator for the broader economy—edged up slightly in June
Changing Sentiment Deals a Blow to FANG and a Look at the Risks Facing the Bond Market
As demand grows for responsible content governance from social media companies—nearly 100 major brands, including Starbucks and Coca-Cola, have paused advertising on social platforms in response to their failure to moderate dangerous and misleading content—FANG stocks suffered their worst decline since the onset of the coronavirus crisis. Will the revenue loss be enough to undermine such entrenched leadership?
Unemployment Plateaus, Good News for Banks, and a Look at Post-Recession EPS Recoveries
Unemployment continues to dominate headlines in the COVID-19 era, and the onslaught of new claims isn’t slowing as quickly as many had hoped. Last week’s numbers showed only a 2% decline in new claims as they top 1 million for the 14th straight week… and continuing claim numbers aren’t faring much better.
Activity Ticks Up, Competition in the Housing Market, and The Nasdaq Races Past Its Peers
The economy is showing more signs of life as the end of Q2 approaches. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index has crossed sharply into growth territory, beating expectations by a more than 12 point gap, and manufacturing activity is following a similar trajectory.
A Look at the Spring Sell-Off, the Yield Curve Normalizes, and a Covid-19 Update
The markets have staged a remarkable comeback since their March lows—the Nasdaq was actually up +10.85% ytd as of Friday’s close—but many investors have missed out on those gains. Nearly 20% of investors fled the equity market entirely between February and May, and that number climbs above 30% for the 65 and older crowd.
Unshakable Unemployment, Economic Indicators Tick Up, and the Suffering Energy Sector
Another 2.2 million Americans filed for unemployment assistance last week as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the labor market. Claims have now been falling for 11 straight weeks and the trend is likely to continue as re-openings roll on.
Retail Sales Spike 17.7%, a Look Ahead at Recovery, and Are Equities Too Dependent on Stimulus?
U.S. retail activity came back with a vengeance in May following April’s disastrous 14.7% plunge—the 17.7% spike is the largest ever monthly increase in spending and could hint at reemerging consumer sentiment. Manufacturing activity, another strong indicator of economic health, has followed a similar trend, but what does recovery look like in other sectors?
Equities Tick Up, the Cost of Stimulus, and COVID-19 Trends
Risk-off sentiment seemed to have returned last week following both the market’s worst day of trading in months and a warning from the Fed that “the path ahead is extremely uncertain.” But returns inched up today with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500® Index turning positive mid-day.
Deflated Inflation, Record-High Corporate Debt, and Near-Zero Rates Are Here to Stay
U.S. CPI fell for the third straight month to near-zero in May and Core CPI didn’t fare much better. According to the OECD, inflation in advanced countries is likely to remain low through much of 2021. Corporate debt has reached a record high in the U.S., approaching 50% of GDP and leaving many companies just barely clinging to life as they see debt servicing costs eclipse profits.
Reexamining the Jobs Report, Reopening Trends, and Risky Investments
Economists (and the markets) were riding high off of Friday’s shining beacon of a jobs report, but some of that shine has rubbed off as analysts dig deeper into the numbers and reveal how a misclassification error monkeyed with the results. The main takeaway?