FIRESIDE CHARTS
Equities Rise As Unemployment Hits New Highs… What’s Driving the Rally?
The U.S. unemployment rate clocked in at a disastrous 14.7% on Friday, hitting its highest point since the Depression. If that wasn’t bad enough, the report shows that the U.S. lost more than twice as many jobs as we did during the Great Recession… in approximately 1/12 of the time.
Unemployment, Unbothered Equities, and the Uncertain Path Forward
It’s jobs report day and we hate to break it to you, but the situation is… grim. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly Employment Situation Summary this morning and highlights include 20.5 million jobs lost in April, the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression (14.7%), and a “real” unemployment rate (which includes the underemployed and workers not actively seeking jobs) of 22.8%.
Grim Forecasts, the Equity Rally, and Reignited Tensions with China
Halfway into an earnings season for the history books and analysts—much like the rest of the world—are still struggling to reach a consensus on what the future holds. The dispersion of estimates for S&P 500® Index companies has spiked to levels not seen since the financial crisis as our “new normal” has meant massive losses for some and gains for others.
Rent’s Due, the ‘Shale Death Zone’, and a Warning Signal from the Bond Market
If this month’s rent or mortgage payment hurt a little more than usual, you aren’t alone. Small businesses are struggling to keep up with expenses following the first full month since “social distancing” entered the lexicon. Only 5% of businesses surveyed made their rent payments in full and the projections of the economic impact of such a change are already in the billions of dollars.
The GDP Hit, Unemployment, and a Look Ahead
U.S. GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in Q1, posting its first quarterly drop in over half a decade and it’s worst quarterly drop since the financial crisis. Consumer spending, the main (re: ~70%) contributor to GDP, was the primary culprit after suffering its worst nosedive since 1980, and plunging business investment was the runner up.
Forward P/E Ratio and EPS Projections, Equity Return Trends, and the Food Supply Chain
It’s a big day for the markets with Q1 GDP data, an FOMC meeting, and earnings reports from industry leaders Microsoft and Facebook. Amid a 4.8% contraction in GDP—the sharpest since the financial crisis—the S&P 500® Index forward P/E ratio shows that stocks remain expensive.
Earnings, A Paycheck Protection Program Check In, and Emerging Consumer & Market Patterns
Ready for a pulse check on one of the most unique earnings seasons on record? In the S&P 500® Index, the Utilities, Healthcare and Information Technology sectors are leading the pack in terms of out-performance, while Energy’s bringing up the rear with only 20% of companies coming in above expectations.
Unemployment, A Nasdaq Milestone, and Is Inflation Approaching?
~4.3 million more Americans filed for unemployment this week, and while that brings the quarantine-era total to ~26 million, inching us closer to a 20% unemployment rate, new claims are trending downward. Unfortunately, so are our manufacturing numbers which have slipped well into contraction territory and are on a path to revisit their financial-crisis lows.
Oil, U.S. Farmers, and More Struggle in a Shifting Market
Earth Day looks to be celebrating the big 5-0 this year with a continuing meltdown of the fossil fuel industry. Oil prices have fallen (deeply, in some cases) into negative, can’t-even-give-it-away territory. As demand lingers at historic lows, the immediate issue facing the industry is a severe lack of storage capacity.
S&P 500’s Record Concentration, Energy’s Mixed Signals, Bond Spreads Calm
In unsurprising news to anyone who’s been keeping an eye on their screen time reports lately, tech companies like Facebook and Amazon are riding a wave of increased traffic in the #socialdistancing era. And as demand falters in other sectors, just five of these companies have cornered over 21% of the S&P 500 Index’s market-cap, flashing reminders of the ultra-concentrated days of ’99-’00. Is such massive concentration sustainable?